JC / Railbird

At 15-1, It’s Tea Time

Blind Luck is the dominant favorite in the Kentucky Oaks, which drew a full field of 14, but I’m hoping for a ‘Tea Time’ upset. So is trainer Rusty Arnold:

In recent weeks, however, Arnold has been in rare form, telling anyone who bothers to ask that a filly named It’s Tea Time is approaching the 136th Kentucky Oaks in such fantastic shape that he wouldn’t be surprised if she were to upset the likes of Blind Luck and the other top-class fillies who will clash Friday at Churchill Downs in the Grade 1, $500,000 classic.

I like the confidence of the usually reticent Arnold. But even more, I like the improving filly’s runner-up finish last month in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, in which she narrowly missed beating Evening Jewel:


I saw this race and thought the same. 15/1 would be a great price to get.

Posted by Robin on April 28, 2010 @ 12:24 pm

I hope she, and a few other, stay close to their ML odds. Even if there’s no upset, with some of those odds tris and supers could pay nicely.

Posted by dana on April 28, 2010 @ 12:51 pm

I’m not so much worried by the fact that it’s her first start on dirt, but what does worry me is that she has never encountered a fast early pace before (and never posted a -published- fast workout either).

In the value department, #2 Jody Slew, would be my pick (although I doubt she will be anywhere near 30/1). This is a late closer who, if you throw out her last race, was the class of the crop in Louisiana and ran consistently around 90 (Bris) going wide. Still a big step to take, of course, but for 30/1 she looks worth it.

That said, if Hollendorfer’s regally-campaigned former 11K yearling can show her best form, I think she stands above this field.

Posted by malcer on April 28, 2010 @ 2:51 pm

Yes, I agree. That’s the flip side of her short career. She’s improving, but hasn’t been tested.

Posted by Jessica on April 29, 2010 @ 7:44 pm