A belated response on my part, sorry for that.

At this point (approaching August, 2010) there is a lot that can happen over the winter. Including the sale of the racetrack. The MP management team may/may not be the same for next year, if there is a Elite Summer Meet next year at all. But one thing is clear, the three day format is working.

Two key developments are required to support that next year. I would like to see Atlantic City offer a boutique meet after Labor Day. And That is when Monmouth Park should close.

Using the funds from the autumn meet to bolster the purses during the summer will keep the momentum going and it is important to realize that losses may be incurred for next year as a “stand-alone” racetrack but the seeds will have been planted for future growth. That’s all we can hope for at this time. Good day sir.

Um, but where are the rich pots going to come from again?

Let’s see. The state run tracks have been bleeding money. They’ve been helped in the form of money from Atlantic City in exchange for not building slots. This kept all the parties with vested interests happy for awhile. The horsemen certainly didn’t mind the bigger purses, $30mm was a drop in the bucket to AC so long as they kept their monopoly on slots in the state and NJSEA, the operator of the tracks, was allowed to run in the red like pretty much every other program in the state.

Everyone with an ear to the ground knows this story.

Now the economy tanked, gaming expanded beyond comprehension in neighboring states, the cash cow that was AC is now bleeding billions in lost revenue and that $30mm might be worth keeping in their pocket since the tracks aren’t getting slots anyway…and while we’re at it, do we even need the tracks?

It’s pretty easy to see where this is all going.

And anyway, it’s not like before the “elite” meet, J-breds were running for pennies. Prior to this year, a NJ restricted allowance at MTH had a bigger pot than the open equivalent. And how have the breeders reacted? With a 30% decline in NJ-bred foals from 1998 to 2008. So basically the concept has been to breed less and lower class horses to run for rich pots in restricted races. A closed system that hasn’t had the intended effect.

And now, with the casino monies from the AC tap about to be shut off, if you had a mare would you send her to Park Avenue Ball to be bred in NJ?

Sure, we don’t know the future but as a horse player, I love to guess at it. The scoreboard says it’s getting late in the game and our team, our beloved Monmouth Park, is about to be ten run ruled right out of the game before it’s even over.

If you think J-breds will be running n1x allowance races for $80k five years from now, I got a bridge to sell you.

A: I never wrote that.

Mr. Crunk wrote:

I wouldn’t expect a 1 year blip in the radar to alter that course.

The entire racing landscape is on thin ice at the moment. What may or may not happen in NY / Maryland / Pennsylvania/ New Jersey will have far reaching effects not only locally but beyond the mid-atlantic.

Nobody knows who will gain and who will lose, but perhaps five years from now we will be able to see the scoreboard a lot clearer than today.

Have a good day Mr. Crunk.

If you graphed the NJ foal crop for the last 20 years, you would see a nose dive. I wouldn’t expect a 1 year blip in the radar to alter that course. And I would suspect any NJ breeder would probably tell you the same thing.

The NJ-bred program is currently scraping the bottom. It hasn’t been this “depleted” for decades.

The local farms and the stallions standing in Maryland, Pennsylvania and New York will have to help out and become eligible for the rich pots. It takes at least three years to see some progress. Five years if Monmouth Park (and hopefully Atlantic City) offers ample racing opportunities.

Logical.

But let’s be fair and give them five years to improve the local crop, shall we? ;-)