Euro Take
On the news that the Santa Anita track will return to dirt:
“I’m disappointed because the European horses won’t be as effective in the BC and I can’t win as much money on backing them through the Yankie [sic] Tote.” — TiltEngine88, United Kingdom / 09:52pm – 19 Aug 10
With the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, that would have been the case this year and next anyway, TiltEngine88! And don’t forget, you still have the Turf.
Rich Eng makes a very sensible point regarding the surface change:
I don’t think this will be the game changer that many others expect it to be. The problems in California racing run a lot deeper.
Also, horsemen and horseplayers: “it’s put-up-or-shut-up time.”
Elsewhere: I haven’t done a links post in several weeks, but the bookmarking never stopped. If you liked those posts, you may like my Delicious account, to which I’ve recently saved more reactions to Santa Anita’s return to dirt, a flashback to racing at the 2001 Brockton fair, a guide to HTML5 for journalists, a summer cocktail recipe, an interview with novelist Gary Shteyngart …
A Lucky Classic?
Well, I suppose it’s possible:
A defeat for dirt leader Quality Road and a sub-par success for all-weather leader Zenyatta were two further indications that Bob Baffert may be about to get lucky in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
The first clue came last week, when his stable star ran away with the Haskell Invitational, posting the best performance by an American three-year-old this year.
But with the leading older horses having the chinks in their armour exposed on the weekend, it now looks increasingly likely that the elite division could be set for a changing of the guards in November.
Although, I’m not sure what chink is being referred to re: Zenyatta. The sub :24 final quarter? Or maybe the final sixteenth in :5.94?
Related: Eight reasons Pull the Pocket likes Zenyatta. Point #2, right on.
Rachel Alexandra Works with New Rider
Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra breezed four furlongs at Churchill Downs this morning, her first work since finishing second to Unrivaled Belle in the LaTroienne Stakes on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. Daily Racing Form gives the filly a flat time of :52 for the move, while Churchill (which sent out the Reed Palmer photo above) reports she went in :50, with splits of :13, :25.60 and :38.60, and galloped out five furlongs in 1:05.60. The time discrepancy isn’t all that’s interesting about Rachel Alexandra’s workout — there was also a notable change of rider, with jockey Shaun Bridgmohan up today in place of Dominic Terry, the filly’s regular exercise rider since she moved into Steve Asmussen’s barn following the 2009 Kentucky Oaks. “It was an easy first work back,” said the trainer, saying nothing, as is his way. “It’s nice cool morning and everything is ideal today. It’s another step in the process.” Re: Terry, via the Rachel Alexandra group on Facebook, comes this unfortunate notice:
5/18/10 Update: Rachel Alexandra worked five furlongs in 1:04.20 over the sloppy Churchill surface on Monday, May 17, again with Bridgmohan up. Reports the Daily Racing Form, regarding the rider change, “Terry recently went to work for Dallas Stewart.”
The Borel Factor
Imagine the Derby winning rider on another horse, muses Jennie Rees:
Not to disparage the jockeys of the horses below, and maybe it wouldn’t apply at any other track, and maybe not any other race. (And in no way to take anything away from Super Saver’s big effort.)
But wouldn’t you want to know what kind of trips that Lookin At Lucky and Ice Box would have gotten if Calvin Borel had been aboard?
Both might have had better trips with Borel aboard, but would it have mattered for either? I briefly wrote about the Derby fractions yesterday; individual splits were ugly, final fractions lousy. It seems unlikely a rider change would have meant anything to Lookin at Lucky, “bumped two or three times” in the early going. After a troubled first in :25.84, the favorite did pick up the pace a little, running the second quarter in :24.11, the third in the same time, and the fourth in :24.62, but his final quarter was an unexciting :26.95. Whatever else happened, Lookin at Lucky didn’t have it yesterday — not losing ground at the start might have moved him up in the order of finish, but he wasn’t going to win. Ice Box is a little more interesting to consider: He ran every quarter but the first faster than the winner. You can’t begrudge trainer Nick Zito for wondering about what might have been, if the Florida Derby winner had only broken a bit more quickly and not been steadied twice in the stretch.
That Rees is even wondering about what could have been with Borel reflects how big a story is the rider this year: “Borel is the Derby king,” with his uncanny affinity for Churchill Downs. Blame the rider “for turning America’s great race into a rerun” with his rail-riding confidence. Call him “a man of destiny.” “He knows Churchill Downs better than anyone else,” and his “uncluttered mind seems to be an absolute gift in pressure situations.” After winning three times in four years, is there any chance the public will let Borel go to post in the 2011 Derby on a horse that’s more than 3-1?
How Super Saver prepped: Lightly. This year’s winner started in two preps (making him the fourth consecutive horse to win the Derby doing so — it’s time for me to concede such contenders must be taken seriously) and had only one work between the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby:
Of the top five finishers, two came out of the Arkansas Derby (Super Saver, Noble’s Promise) and two (Paddy O’Prado, Make Music for Me) from the Blue Grass Stakes — a reminder that race still has some claim as a legitimate Derby prep, regardless of what handicappers think of the Polytrack era or its longshot winners.
5/3/10 Addendum: Somehow I missed Borel’s post-Derby prediction:
“I’m going to win the Triple Crown this year,” he declared.
Not So Blind
I knew I was in trouble with It’s Tea Time when her name kept surfacing in blog posts and tweets Saturday morning as a top Oaks pick. It was shades of Sweetnorthernsaint in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, watching the hype build. “It’s official: the first ‘blogger steam’ horse in history is It’s Tea Time,” remarked @HRFattheTrack. At 7-1, well down from her morning line odds of 15-1, the filly went into the gate as the third favorite.
Blind Luck, of course, was the favorite, and there was no doubt she was a deserving 6-5 at post time as she did her thing in the stretch, ranging up on the outside and nailing the win at wire by a nose over 13-1 Evening Jewel:
Final time for the race was 1:50.70 (chart), for which Blind Luck was given a Beyer speed figure of 94. The official teletimer photo:
It’s Tea Time? She finished ninth.
Earlier on the Churchill card, disappointment for HOTY fans: Rachel Alexandra lost her second start of the year, finishing a head behind 9-1 Unrivaled Belle in the LaTroienne Stakes, prompting Bill Finley — who must have had this piece already written, so quickly did it go up on the ESPN site — to opine,
The prudent course will probably soon become obvious to Asmussen and Jackson, and Rachel Alexandra will be retired. That sure seems like the right thing to do.
But Jess Jackson, in a post-race visit to the press box, said the 4-year-old filly appeared to come out of the race well and would remain in training:
(Paulick Report video of the surprise press conference: Part 1, Part 2.)
While Jackson’s statements may seem a little rushed, I can’t fault him for wanting to check any speculation about retirement; Rachel Alexandra deserves another start. To paraphrase Jay Hovdey, she’s not running badly, she’s just not winning, and there are plenty of races remaining in the year.
11:00 AM Addendum: A final time of 1:42.97 for the LaTroienne, a Beyer speed figure of 103 for both Unrivaled Belle and Rachel Alexandra.
Eskendereya Skips Work Out of Derby
9:25 AM Update: Eskendereya is out of the Kentucky Derby. “He’s got some filling. We’re not sure of the extent of what we’re dealing with. But he’s not going to run,” trainer Todd Pletcher said, describing the colt as “slightly off.” (Right: Pletcher, speaking to the media this morning at Churchill Downs. Photo credit: Reed Palmer Photography.)
What changes with this news? The filly Devil May Care seems more likely to enter, Jackson Bend has a real shot of making the field, and Lookin at Lucky takes over as expected post-time favorite.
10:00 AM: Bettors are already adjusting to Esky’s withdrawal: Eskendereya’s odds are drifting, Lookin at Lucky’s shortening (And at 11:00 AM, with Eskendereya out, Lookin at Lucky is 7-2, Sidney’s Candy 5-1.)
3:55 PM: Jennie Rees has reactions from Derby trainers: “My stomach right now hurts for them. I know what they’re going through. I know what Todd [Pletcher] is going through. You’re not safe until you put the saddle on and hear My Old Kentucky Home. ”
- - - - -
No workout for Eskendereya this morning, and now the status of the likely Kentucky Derby favorite is uncertain.
On Saturday, Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form reported there was evidence of “some issues” plaguing the colt:
Eskendereya had a workout planned for Saturday postponed because of wet weather, and while Eskendereya did have a routine gallop, there is at least circumstantial evidence that Pletcher is trying to nurse Eskendereya through some issues. After training hours on Saturday, every horse at Pletcher’s barn who was walking the shed row had their training bandages removed except for Eskendereya. This follows a postponed final prep, from the Florida Derby to the Wood Memorial two weeks later, and the addition of front bandages for the Wood Memorial.
Earlier this morning, there was some doubt about whether he would work today. From Ron Mitchell of the Blood-Horse:
Meanwhile, shortly after 6 a.m. Sunday, trainer Todd Pletcher said he was undecided about whether Derby favorite Eskendereya and Derby possible starter Interactif would breeze following the maintenance break.
“I am going to watch a couple of sets and see,” Pletcher said. “It’s pretty hard right now.”
Minutes ago, Ed DeRosa of Thoroughbred Times, at Churchill Downs, tweeted:
Eskendereya did not go to track. #KYDerby participation in serious doubt.
Developing …
That’s Not a Mint Julep
… Mad Men character Peggy Olsen is holding in the video still below, found on the official Churchill Downs’ “Plan Your Derby Party” page:
At least it’s not Roger Sterling in blackface singing “My Old Kentucky Home.” That really could have been embarrassing.
From the Twitterverse: Says o_crunk, “@EJXD2 solid marketing. Ganja goes down better than a mint julep. Untapped potential in couch potato potheads waiting to get hooked on TVG.” Of course! Churchill is wisely reaching out.
2/8/10 Update: So, it wasn’t subversive marketing, after all. The Derby Party page is now free of all mentions of Mad Men and the episode three video clip.
Night Numbers
By all accounts, Churchill Downs’ inaugural night of racing was a success: “It looks like the Dubai World Cup,” said jockey Julien Leparoux, surveying the crowd (Daily Racing Form); “We had to park and walk like it was Oaks or Derby day,” said an attendee (Paulick Report). The final attendance figure announced by Churchill was a healthy 28,011 for a card without a major stakes. But what about handle? As @superterrific noticed,
… all the reports of success don’t include handle …
Churchill no longer releases handle totals, but it is possible to glean clues about last night’s wagering from the pool data included on Equibase charts. For instance, on Friday, June 12, $1,966,831 was wagered WPS on 11 regularly scheduled races compared to the $2,309,563 that was wagered WPS yesterday on 11 nighttime races. That’s an increase of approximately 17% in the WPS pools week to week. In the late Pick 4 pool, $103,062 was wagered the previous Friday versus $137,689 last night, a 34% bump (the first Pick 4 pool was up 14%). Pick 3 pools totaled $273,409 compared to $243,508, up 12%. The tiny Pick 6 pool was up 80%, going from $4,811 last Friday to $8,653 last night. Total exacta pools showed some of the smallest growth, up a mere 6%, or $1,584,627 last night compared to $1,500,217 the week before.
Overall, not bad, considering the crowd skewed young and casual (Aside: Churchill took much criticism for raising the track entrance fee to $10, but clearly that didn’t keep people away and it surely made up for some of what many attendees didn’t — and wouldn’t have — bet). Looking at what information is available, it seems safe to conclude even without official figures that night racing was a win for handle as well as attendance.
Addendum: Curious about the totals, I returned to the charts and tallied all the pools for both dates. On June 12, total handle came to $5,872,007; on June 19, $6,526,603, an increase of 11%. Without figures from Churchill, it’s impossible to know the breakdown between on- and off-track wagering and whether on-track bettors wagered less per capita Friday night or how simulcast wagering might have been affected. Regarding the latter, it does seem likely the late post-times resulted in depressed off-track handle: The first three races on Friday night were the only races where pool totals didn’t exceed totals from the previous week. It was in race four, which had a post-time of 7:30 p.m., that wagering took off, with $704,666 wagered compared to $387,382 the week before. Take the first three races out of the totals for both days, and Churchill handle was up almost 18% for races four through eleven.
6/21/09 Update: The Courier-Journal reports that Churchill Downs took in $6.5 million from all sources (the same number I came to above), “a 32 percent increase.” Since the reporter earlier referenced 2008 numbers in discussing on-track numbers, I’m going to assume that this increase also represents a year to year comparison, not a week to week.
Derby Eve Notes
- First, of course: Rachel Alexandra. Winner of the Oaks by a record 20 1/4 lengths, all while looking like she was out for a jog. “Breathtaking,” “one-of-a-kind freak,” “wow, wow, wow,” and possibly “the most dominating victory in a major race since Secretariat’s Belmont Stakes,” were just a few of the immediate reactions. Magnificent, I’ll add. Awesome. A final eighth in :12.16, a final three furlongs in :37.06, all without jockey Calvin Borel moving. Not a shake of the reins, not a flick of the whip, urged her to that beautiful widening lead down the Churchill stretch.
In the April 18 issue of the Thoroughbred Times, an excerpt from Regret’s 1934 obituary appeared on the final page. Regret was the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby; Rachel Alexandra looked every bit like she could have become the fourth. “Peerless Regret she was hailed and peerless she undoubtedly was,” recalled the writer, “and to this day we have never been able to think of her without that descriptive adjective affixed.” It is now affixed to Rachel Alexandra, wherever her career takes the filly.
- Props to announcer Mark Johnson for making the most of what could have been a bland call and deftly incorporating Borel’s stretch mugging into his patter with impeccable timing: “Borel looks over his right shoulder, no danger!,” he says as the rider’s head ducks. “Over his left shoulder, no danger!”
- Derby picks: Instead of adding to the glut, I’ll point to this page, on which can be found a surfeit of sharp handicapping, selections, analysis, etc. After taking a first pass through the Derby past performances, I landed on Friesan Fire, who I’d previously dismissed except as an exotic possibility, due to the seven week layoff and the lack of a nine furlong prep. I see I wasn’t the only convert — several of the contributors to the HRI Media Poll tabbed him on top, and the Larry Jones trainee is the 9-2 favorite in early Derby wagering. Except — now, I’ve taken a second pass and while Friesan Fire strikes me as a must-use horse, I’m not so confident he’s a winner. (That layoff!) What will I do on Saturday? I’m not sure yet … but I will be using Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, and Dunkirk as A horses; Papa Clem, Desert Party, and I Want Revenge as B horses; Musket Man, Mr. Hot Stuff, and Pioneerof the Nile as C horses. Yes, that’s right … I’ve narrowed the Derby down to nine horses.
- In the second installment of the Blinkers Off chronicles, our special correspondent wades into the sea of humanity that is the Oaks crowd.
- Just a lovely piece of writing: The legend tutors the rookie in Derby riding. “‘An option will open for you,’ the legend tells the rookie … ‘Wait for it. Wait for it to appear. If you move early, you’ll pay the price.’”
Blinkers Off Returns
Special correspondent Blinkers Off is once again roaming the Churchill backstretch and filing irreverent posts …
While this idiocy was going on, Papa Clem went out and whistled three furlongs in 34 seconds. A very fine reporter, actually paying attention, said the horse looked like he wasn’t even trying…
Tom Law, managing editor at Thoroughbred Times, picks him.
Later on, Nowhere to Hide went out for a gallop at 8:30 a.m. Nick Zito looked embarrassed to be there with such a popgun. All I could think of was the year he ran five and had a plastic fence installed around his barn to keep away the riffraff. This year, he’s running the riffraff.
This spring, though, instead of posting on Railbird, Blinkers Off is over at Raceday 360, which is beginning its expansion into original content. More on that development sometime Friday, right after a couple database issues afflicting the site this evening are addressed (items are slow to add, pages may be slow to load). Also, a bit of Oaks, and more Derby.
About
Jessica Chapel is a writer and editor living in Cambridge, MA. Railbird v1 was a thoroughbred racing blog that ran 2004-2008; Railbird v2 is a broader collection of notes and links, but still (mostly) about the horses. More ›
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