2010 Kentucky Derby Links
Results: Equibase chart for Derby 136 (PDF)
Beyer speed figures: Super Saver, 104 - Ice Box, 100
PPs: DRF past performances (PDF)
Reference: Historical criteria spreadsheet
Preps: Schedule, results, and replays
Churchill: Official Kentucky Derby web site
Forgive the self-promotion; it’s not every day I can say that you can find me twice on the New York Times web site …
On the City Room blog, I reply to comments left regarding Sunday’s OTB story. Overall, I’m pretty pleased with the exchange, except for one mistake on my part — I realized this morning that commenter El Barto was referring to the amount retained by OTB, not the surcharge on winning bets. Oops! It’s still a fine reply, just to another question.
On the Rail, I write about history and preps, how the races have changed, how tradition may still matter. After I’d already sent this piece off, I read Jay Hovdey’s post on Derby defections, in which he refers to Eskendereya’s “porcelain handling.” I suppose there’s some truth to that, but consider: Last year’s field averaged 6.4 lifetime starts, down a bit from the 7.05 of the 2004 field (the first of the 20-horse Derby era). A light record is just the way of things these days — this year’s likely field averages 6.5 starts — making the 3YO prep season all the more important.
Dublin, dropped from my PDI top 10 after the Arkansas Derby, returns this week at #1, a move driven by Eskendereya’s withdrawal from the race and a few hours with the past performances. Last week, when the field was looking set, I was intent on figuring out who would run behind Eskendereya — I know, I should feel more embarrassed to admit that. Every wise guy out there has been complaining about how with the loss of Esky, all the odds on the horses they were really planning to play have plunged. Whatever. The colt had the two best Beyer speed figures of this bunch, a perfect prep season, a fitting pedigree. He’s also physically impressive — watching at Aqueduct on Wood Day, I was struck by how much more mature and robust he looked than the other starters (check out his chest and shoulders in this photo by Sarah K. Andrew). Watching the Wood replay, what grabbed my attention was how much he reminded me of Big Brown (and I wasn’t even a Big Brown fan), exhibiting a similar control and ease as he took the lead and drew away. I was going to bet the chalk on Saturday, and happily.
As for Dublin, I still have some concerns he won’t relish the Derby distance, but then, ten furlongs seem questionable for several of this year’s expected starters, who, for the most part, haven’t made much of an impression on me. His track work this weekend could also suggest problems: After attempting to bolt during a Saturday gallop, Dublin drifted out around the final turn in his Sunday work. What’s more, DRF clocker Mike Welsch noted, “the failure to gallop out with any serious energy cannot be taken as positive signs less than one week out from the big event.” A factor in his favor, though, is the relative toughness of the Oaklawn preps, in which Dublin ran well. Off a second in the Southwest, a third in the Rebel, and a fast-closing third in the Arkansas Derby,* he could be poised to move forward.
Devil May Care, coming into the Derby with a competitive profile and a slightly faster time in G2 Bonnie Miss Stakes than Ice Box in the G1 Florida Derby on the same day, moves to #2 and Sidney’s Candy to #3. Lookin at Lucky remains at #4, despite his exceptional qualities. I would rate him higher, but for his tendency to find trouble, and he’s only had two preps this year. There’s also the matter of blinkers-on, blinkers-off: Trainer Bob Baffert is still trying to figure out the colt, and he’s running out of time. But then, the new Derby favorite worked brilliantly this morning. (Trying to sort it all out this evening, Bill Finley’s see-no-works, hear-no-works approach to Derby week suddenly seems a very sensible one.)
PDI top 10 for 4/27/10: 1) Dublin 2) Devil May Care 3) Sidney’s Candy 4) Lookin at Lucky 5) Endorsement 6) Awesome Act 7) Jackson Bend 8) American Lion 9) Discreetly Mine 10) Stately Victor
Call it the Twerby? The 2009 Derby was the first in which Twitter played a real role, even if it was mostly to inspire an ongoing debate about the usefulness of the service. This year, however, Twitter has been a source of fast-changing news (see Ed DeRosa’s tweets Sunday on Eskendereya skipping work, doubtful for the Derby, out of the Derby), close-ups of contenders (see Frances J. Karon’s pictures of Dublin and Devil May Care), as well as workout times. Thanks to Dana Byerly of Green But Game for pointing out this Blood-Horse article on Monday’s Derby works, which cites tweets from Churchill’s media department. Observed Vic Zast, by tweet of course,
Not amazing that Esky out of Derby. Favs can drop out in last week. What’s amazing is how fast social networking sites passed news along.
How much a scene can change in just a year, and for the better.
*I was asked last week about column 15, “Key Derby Preps,” on the historical criteria spreadsheet. The numbers that appear there are simply how many such races a horse started in while prepping. Qualifying races were determined by the total number of Derby starters that emerged from each race, as well as the total number that finished ITM in the Derby, 1998-2008. A dozen races rated highly on both counts. It’s a quick measure of contenders’ preps, based on recent trends. Kevin Martin of Colin’s Ghost has done much deeper research on Derby preps: I recommend his work for more insight into using historical trends for judging prep races.
9:25 AM Update: Eskendereya is out of the Kentucky Derby. “He’s got some filling. We’re not sure of the extent of what we’re dealing with. But he’s not going to run,” trainer Todd Pletcher said, describing the colt as “slightly off.” (Right: Pletcher, speaking to the media this morning at Churchill Downs. Photo credit: Reed Palmer Photography.)
What changes with this news? The filly Devil May Care seems more likely to enter, Jackson Bend has a real shot of making the field, and Lookin at Lucky takes over as expected post-time favorite.
10:00 AM: Bettors are already adjusting to Esky’s withdrawal: Eskendereya’s odds are drifting, Lookin at Lucky’s shortening (And at 11:00 AM, with Eskendereya out, Lookin at Lucky is 7-2, Sidney’s Candy 5-1.)
3:55 PM: Jennie Rees has reactions from Derby trainers: “My stomach right now hurts for them. I know what they’re going through. I know what Todd [Pletcher] is going through. You’re not safe until you put the saddle on and hear My Old Kentucky Home. ”
- - - - -
No workout for Eskendereya this morning, and now the status of the likely Kentucky Derby favorite is uncertain.
On Saturday, Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form reported there was evidence of “some issues” plaguing the colt:
Eskendereya had a workout planned for Saturday postponed because of wet weather, and while Eskendereya did have a routine gallop, there is at least circumstantial evidence that Pletcher is trying to nurse Eskendereya through some issues. After training hours on Saturday, every horse at Pletcher’s barn who was walking the shed row had their training bandages removed except for Eskendereya. This follows a postponed final prep, from the Florida Derby to the Wood Memorial two weeks later, and the addition of front bandages for the Wood Memorial.
Earlier this morning, there was some doubt about whether he would work today. From Ron Mitchell of the Blood-Horse:
Meanwhile, shortly after 6 a.m. Sunday, trainer Todd Pletcher said he was undecided about whether Derby favorite Eskendereya and Derby possible starter Interactif would breeze following the maintenance break.
“I am going to watch a couple of sets and see,” Pletcher said. “It’s pretty hard right now.”
Minutes ago, Ed DeRosa of Thoroughbred Times, at Churchill Downs, tweeted:
Eskendereya did not go to track. #KYDerby participation in serious doubt.
Developing …
Since Odysseus is now #3 on my Kentucky Derby top 10, it was with some relief that I read trainer Tom Albertrani plans to give the Tampa Bay Derby winner, not a seven-week layoff, but another prep before the Kentucky Derby:
We’re probably going to work him either Thursday or Friday, see how he is, and then make a choice between the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby.
With Rule dropping to #7, largely due to his apparent inability to rate and subsequent third-place finish in the Florida Derby last Saturday, Eskendereya moves to #1. We’ll find out in the April 3 Wood Memorial, which drew 61 nominations (PDF), if the position is deserved.
PDI top 10 for 3/23/10: 1) Eskendereya 2) Lookin at Lucky 3) Odysseus 4) Dublin 5) Sidney’s Candy 6) Caracortado 7) Rule 8) Awesome Act 9) Discreetly Mine 10) Fast Alex Noble’s Promise
The Louisiana Derby is the most significant of three Derby preps scheduled this weekend. Thirteen are entered, including Risen Star winner Discreetly Mine. Not among the starters, intriguing allowance winner Fast Alex: The colt suffered a shin injury and “might be sidelined for a couple months.” (For more about this weekend’s races, sign up for the HRF Derby Prep Alert emails.)
In non-Derby news: David Milch’s “Luck” starts filming at Santa Anita on March 29. “Mr. Mann expressed a strong desire to shoot much of this pilot while we were running live.” The pilot is expected to air on HBO in early 2011.
Owner Ahmed Zayat on why Eskendereya will start in the Wood Memorial next month, and not the Florida Derby this weekend:
“The main issue is timing,” Zayat said. “I’m not really comfortable off the six weeks. If I’m genuine about the Kentucky Derby, I need to give the prep I want to make sure he peaks on the right day.”
Also:
“I think the Wood is coming up a very tough race and I don’t mind that,” Zayat said. “I think this colt will win a Grade 1. Am I missing a Grade 1 [Florida Derby]? I think he’ll get more out of the Wood than the Florida Derby.”
Refreshing, hearing a high-profile connection with a top Kentucky Derby prospect putting an emphasis on prepping to win the race, not merely on getting to the gate. (Or is something else afoot? 3/18/10: No.)
Related: Mike Watchmaker approves of the move. “I have to say, I like it. A lot.”
3/18/10 Addendum: “Fool,” says Paulick.
Derby prospects: The one move I made with confidence on this week’s PDI top 10 was bumping Tampa Bay Derby winner Odysseus from #8 to #3. That was an easy call after the colt, making his first graded stakes start, showed such gutsiness in surging late after falling back at the top of the stretch and looking well beaten. Tampa Bay Downs released the photo (via Twitter), which put Odysseus barely a nostril ahead of Schoolyard Dreams:
The gently-handled Rebel winner Lookin at Lucky makes his first appearance, while Dublin drops to #7. Drifting out in the stretch, he didn’t look like a horse who wanted more distance, but I’ll give the son of Afleet Alex one more race. Discreetly Mine drops off, but remains on the watch list, pending the Louisiana Derby. (View the 2010 prep schedule and results.)
Top 10: 1) Rule 2) Eskendereya 3) Odysseus 4) Lookin at Lucky 5) Sidney’s Candy 6) Caracortado 7) Dublin 8) Awesome Act 9) Radiohead 10) Fast Alex
Questions: Does Radiohead have a quarter crack? There’s a rumor … Will Odysseus start in the Kentucky Derby off a seven-week layoff? Trainer Tom Albertrani is considering the possibility …
Distaffers: 15-for-15 Zenyatta is still pointing to next month’s Apple Blossom Invitational, beaten-by-Zardana Rachel Alexandra is not. Beyer speed figures for the three: Zenyatta, 102; Zardana, 101; Rachel Alexandra, 100.
Elsewhere: Omnisurface Stars updates and the “Volcanic” NTRA.
The Paulick Derby Index returns, and I’m pleased to be taking part once again. Is it a little early to start ranking possible Kentucky Derby contenders? For sure; the 2008 Derby winner, Big Brown, hadn’t even recorded his first workout of the year (for those interested, a spreadsheet of Kentucky Derby winners’ preps, including works, from 1998-2009) and eventual champions Curlin and Summer Bird were still maidens at this time. But, a few up-and-comers have made an impression. (Hello, late-running Ron the Greek!) Consider my first top 10 a watch list; I want to see more from all on it.
- Discuss: Jockey Garrett Gomez chose to ride multiple graded stakes-winning Pioneerof the Nile in the Kentucky Derby over stakes-placed Dunkirk. Did he make the right call? “No,” says Bill Finley, Dunkirk is the better horse. “Yes,” says Jon White, PotN might sweep the Triple Crown. Now, this is the sort of debate it’s fun to have Derby season …
- Steve Davidowitz makes a point in his latest Trackmaster column worth repeating: “Isn’t it clear by now that horses that have run well — or reasonably well — on the synthetic surfaces in southern California have run just as well if not better on good ole plain dirt?” I can think of a few reasons a handicapper might decide to dismiss the Derby contenders, even Pioneerof the Nile, who have campaigned primarily over synthetics, but the surface isn’t a sound one, at least, not yet. There’s too little data, and what there is, points to the synth-to-dirt move as not being an automatic negative.
- Love this little detail in a Los Angeles Times article about Rafael Bejarano’s SoCal success: “Bejarano is so in demand that Saturday, on the 10-race California Gold Rush program, he will have a mount in all 10 races.” The Saturday following, Bejarano will be at Churchill to ride Papa Clem, whose Derby credentials seem more solid the more I consider him.
- Unlike Desert Party … Godolphin announced today that Alan Garcia will remain on Regal Ransom and that Ramon Dominguez will ride Desert Party for the first time next week, which doesn’t inspire confidence in this fan. (Not because Dominguez isn’t a fine jockey, but why no Frankie Dettori? There’s also the matter of Desert Party’s first work at Churchill, which was solid, but not so good as his stablemate’s on the same day).
- Forget about looking for Kentucky Derby picks who have proved they can come home in less than :38 seconds in a nine-furlong prep. According to the Downey Profile, every likely contender who finished first or second in a prep race ran the final three furlongs in that time or better. What’s more, two-thirds of likely starters did so in better than :37 seconds. This really will be a competitive Derby. (Via The Rail, recently returned.)
Historical and popular handicapping criteria, applied to the top 22 Kentucky Derby prospects, listed according to graded stakes earnings. The spreadsheet includes the complete 2003-2008 Derby fields and the top three finishers 1998-2008 for reference, and will be updated once more during Derby week, after all workouts are done and post positions have been drawn. Note: This year I’ve added two columns, one for “Started on dirt,” another for “Won on dirt,” for those concerned about the surface factor.
Any questions or suggestions? Please let me know in the comments (thanks for asking about when this would be up, Jeff). I’ll be returning to the spreadsheet, stats, and Derby handicapping next week.
4/21/09 Addition: Geno at Equispace has also been hard at work compiling data, and has posted a thorough spreadsheet that includes Beyer speed figures and dosage for the top Derby prospects.
- Few changes to the top 10 this week, with all adjustments in the second tier. Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem, who’s been bumping around the lower third since February, moves to #6, replacing runner-up Old Fashioned, now off the Derby trail and likely done with racing due to a slab fracture of the knee. General Quarters appears at #8 following his win in the Blue Grass, making him the second to come out of the Tampa Bay Derby and take a stakes. I had trouble coming up with a tenth prospect, narrowing the possibles down to Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, and West Side Bernie, all on the cusp. Although Twitterverse sentiment was 4-to-1 for ‘Candy, I settled on Musket Man, who followed up on his Tampa win with another in last week’s Illinois Derby.
Top 10 for 4/14/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Friesan Fire 6. Papa Clem 7. Dunkirk 8. General Quarters 9. Regal Ransom 10. Musket Man
- Chocolate Candy worked yesterday morning with new rider Mike Smith up, going five furlongs handily in :59.20 at Santa Anita. “I was happy with the work, said trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Of course he was. Trainers are almost never quoted as anything but thrilled with their charges, especially three weeks before the biggest 3-year-old race of the year. The colt does look pretty good in this video of his Sunday move, though.
Dunkirk and Quality Road also worked over the weekend, with Dunkirk breezing four furlongs in :49.06 at Palm Meadows, and Quality Road doing the same in :48 at Belmont Park. He then galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.85 (according to DRF; Belmont clockers credited Quality’ with a five furlong breeze in 1:02.19). NYRA posted a short video of the work, showing the Jimmy Jerkens-trained colt going fine, apparently untroubled by the quarter crack found earlier in the week.
On the distaff side, watch mail brought notice that Music Note, third in her final 2008 start, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Classic, is back in training. The 4-year-old filly breezed three furlongs in :37.40 at Keeneland on Saturday. No news yet on where she might debut this year. Possibly Belmont, in a race such as the June 13 G1 Ogden Phipps Handicap?
- It might be too early to start speculating on possible Derby pace scenarios, but with Old Fashioned and The Pamplemousse out, who goes to the front? There’s not a lot of early speed among the remaining probables.
- BSFs: 99 101 (upgraded) for Papa Clem, 95 for General Quarters.
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Jessica Chapel is a writer and editor living in Cambridge, MA. Railbird v1 was a thoroughbred racing blog that ran 2004-2008; Railbird v2 is a broader collection of notes and links, but still (mostly) about the horses. More ›
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