Jessica Chapel / Railbird

Derby Prospects

Updated for 2011

… the prep and historical criteria Kentucky Derby spreadsheet.

Those considering betting Dialed In, the 4-1 morning line favorite, might want to take note that he and Decisive Moment are the the only two Derby starters who have not earned their best Beyer speed figures at a distance of 1 1/16 miles or longer (putting aside Master of Hounds, who has one US start and speed figure in his seven-race career). Going back to 1998, no horse has won the Derby without a best BSF at that distance or longer, and only three of 27 starters who didn’t have a best BSF at 1 1/16+ even finished in the money (a number that includes the filly Eight Belles).

Posted in Racing on May 5, 2011 / Tagged Derby Handicapping, Derby Prospects, Historical Criteria, Kentucky Derby, Spreadsheets / 1 comment

Sunday Training

Out and about at Churchill Downs this morning …

Stay Thirsty

Watch Me Go

Pants on Fire

Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty, working in company

Joyful Victory, with trainer Larry Jones

Posted in Racing on May 1, 2011 / Tagged Churchill Downs, Derby Prospects, Oaks Prospects, Photos, Training / Comments Off

R High Figure

As measured by the speed figure makers, the Kentucky Derby field may be “solid, competitive … and slow,” but there’s a dominant figure in the Oaks.

Speaking of figures …

“Frankel’s performance can only be described as awesome,” said the official BHA handicapper for milers, apparently as awed as everyone else watching Frankel cheerfully gut the field running behind him from the start in the 2000 Guineas (replay). “He destroyed the others, not himself,” said trainer Henry Cecil. At the end what impressed almost as much as the ease with which the undefeated colt won was how hard his rivals had to run to even keep him in view. Timeform gave Frankel a provisional rating of 142, the third best ever; the Racing Post rated him 133, the highest ever on that scale.

Posted in Racing on April 30, 2011 / Tagged Derby Prospects, Frankel, International, Oaks Prospects, R Heat Lightning, Speed Figures / Comments Off