Railbird top 10 Kentucky Derby prospects for 3/15/2010:
1) Rule 2) Eskendereya 3) Odysseus 4) Lookin at Lucky 5) Sidney's Candy 6) Caracortado 7) Dublin 8) Awesome Act 9) Radiohead 10) Fast Alex
Watching Discreetly Mine, Blind Luck, Noble's Promise
Derby links:
2010 Kentucky Derby prep schedule and results (spreadsheet)
Historical criteria and Derby fields, winners (spreadsheet)
Paulick Derby Index (updated weekly)
Official Kentucky Derby web site (includes earnings list)
Owner Ahmed Zayat on why Eskendereya will start in the Wood Memorial next month, and not the Florida Derby this weekend:
“The main issue is timing,” Zayat said. “I’m not really comfortable off the six weeks. If I’m genuine about the Kentucky Derby, I need to give the prep I want to make sure he peaks on the right day.”
Also:
“I think the Wood is coming up a very tough race and I don’t mind that,” Zayat said. “I think this colt will win a Grade 1. Am I missing a Grade 1 [Florida Derby]? I think he’ll get more out of the Wood than the Florida Derby.”
Refreshing, hearing a high-profile connection with a top Kentucky Derby prospect putting an emphasis on prepping to win the race, not merely on getting to the gate. (Or is something else afoot? 3/18/10: No.)
Related: Mike Watchmaker approves of the move. “I have to say, I like it. A lot.”
3/18/10 Addendum: “Fool,” says Paulick.
Derby prospects: The one move I made with confidence on this week’s PDI top 10 was bumping Tampa Bay Derby winner Odysseus from #8 to #3. That was an easy call after the colt, making his first graded stakes start, showed such gutsiness in surging late after falling back at the top of the stretch and looking well beaten. Tampa Bay Downs released the photo (via Twitter), which put Odysseus barely a nostril ahead of Schoolyard Dreams:
The gently-handled Rebel winner Lookin at Lucky makes his first appearance, while Dublin drops to #7. Drifting out in the stretch, he didn’t look like a horse who wanted more distance, but I’ll give the son of Afleet Alex one more race. Discreetly Mine drops off, but remains on the watch list, pending the Louisiana Derby. (View the 2010 prep schedule and results.)
Top 10: 1) Rule 2) Eskendereya 3) Odysseus 4) Lookin at Lucky 5) Sidney’s Candy 6) Caracortado 7) Dublin 8) Awesome Act 9) Radiohead 10) Fast Alex
Questions: Does Radiohead have a quarter crack? There’s a rumor … Will Odysseus start in the Kentucky Derby off a seven-week layoff? Trainer Tom Albertrani is considering the possibility …
Distaffers: 15-for-15 Zenyatta is still pointing to next month’s Apple Blossom Invitational, beaten-by-Zardana Rachel Alexandra is not. Beyer speed figures for the three: Zenyatta, 102; Zardana, 101; Rachel Alexandra, 100.
Elsewhere: Omnisurface Stars updates and the “Volcanic” NTRA.
The Paulick Derby Index returns, and I’m pleased to be taking part once again. Is it a little early to start ranking possible Kentucky Derby contenders? For sure; the 2008 Derby winner, Big Brown, hadn’t even recorded his first workout of the year (for those interested, a spreadsheet of Kentucky Derby winners’ preps, including works, from 1998-2009) and eventual champions Curlin and Summer Bird were still maidens at this time. But, a few up-and-comers have made an impression. (Hello, late-running Ron the Greek!) Consider my first top 10 a watch list; I want to see more from all on it.
- Discuss: Jockey Garrett Gomez chose to ride multiple graded stakes-winning Pioneerof the Nile in the Kentucky Derby over stakes-placed Dunkirk. Did he make the right call? “No,” says Bill Finley, Dunkirk is the better horse. “Yes,” says Jon White, PotN might sweep the Triple Crown. Now, this is the sort of debate it’s fun to have Derby season …
- Steve Davidowitz makes a point in his latest Trackmaster column worth repeating: “Isn’t it clear by now that horses that have run well — or reasonably well — on the synthetic surfaces in southern California have run just as well if not better on good ole plain dirt?” I can think of a few reasons a handicapper might decide to dismiss the Derby contenders, even Pioneerof the Nile, who have campaigned primarily over synthetics, but the surface isn’t a sound one, at least, not yet. There’s too little data, and what there is, points to the synth-to-dirt move as not being an automatic negative.
- Love this little detail in a Los Angeles Times article about Rafael Bejarano’s SoCal success: “Bejarano is so in demand that Saturday, on the 10-race California Gold Rush program, he will have a mount in all 10 races.” The Saturday following, Bejarano will be at Churchill to ride Papa Clem, whose Derby credentials seem more solid the more I consider him.
- Unlike Desert Party … Godolphin announced today that Alan Garcia will remain on Regal Ransom and that Ramon Dominguez will ride Desert Party for the first time next week, which doesn’t inspire confidence in this fan. (Not because Dominguez isn’t a fine jockey, but why no Frankie Dettori? There’s also the matter of Desert Party’s first work at Churchill, which was solid, but not so good as his stablemate’s on the same day).
- Forget about looking for Kentucky Derby picks who have proved they can come home in less than :38 seconds in a nine-furlong prep. According to the Downey Profile, every likely contender who finished first or second in a prep race ran the final three furlongs in that time or better. What’s more, two-thirds of likely starters did so in better than :37 seconds. This really will be a competitive Derby. (Via The Rail, recently returned.)
Historical and popular handicapping criteria, applied to the top 22 Kentucky Derby prospects, listed according to graded stakes earnings. The spreadsheet includes the complete 2003-2008 Derby fields and the top three finishers 1998-2008 for reference, and will be updated once more during Derby week, after all workouts are done and post positions have been drawn. Note: This year I’ve added two columns, one for “Started on dirt,” another for “Won on dirt,” for those concerned about the surface factor.
Any questions or suggestions? Please let me know in the comments (thanks for asking about when this would be up, Jeff). I’ll be returning to the spreadsheet, stats, and Derby handicapping next week.
4/21/09 Addition: Geno at Equispace has also been hard at work compiling data, and has posted a thorough spreadsheet that includes Beyer speed figures and dosage for the top Derby prospects.
- Few changes to the top 10 this week, with all adjustments in the second tier. Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem, who’s been bumping around the lower third since February, moves to #6, replacing runner-up Old Fashioned, now off the Derby trail and likely done with racing due to a slab fracture of the knee. General Quarters appears at #8 following his win in the Blue Grass, making him the second to come out of the Tampa Bay Derby and take a stakes. I had trouble coming up with a tenth prospect, narrowing the possibles down to Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, and West Side Bernie, all on the cusp. Although Twitterverse sentiment was 4-to-1 for ‘Candy, I settled on Musket Man, who followed up on his Tampa win with another in last week’s Illinois Derby.
Top 10 for 4/14/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Friesan Fire 6. Papa Clem 7. Dunkirk 8. General Quarters 9. Regal Ransom 10. Musket Man
- Chocolate Candy worked yesterday morning with new rider Mike Smith up, going five furlongs handily in :59.20 at Santa Anita. “I was happy with the work, said trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Of course he was. Trainers are almost never quoted as anything but thrilled with their charges, especially three weeks before the biggest 3-year-old race of the year. The colt does look pretty good in this video of his Sunday move, though.
Dunkirk and Quality Road also worked over the weekend, with Dunkirk breezing four furlongs in :49.06 at Palm Meadows, and Quality Road doing the same in :48 at Belmont Park. He then galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.85 (according to DRF; Belmont clockers credited Quality’ with a five furlong breeze in 1:02.19). NYRA posted a short video of the work, showing the Jimmy Jerkens-trained colt going fine, apparently untroubled by the quarter crack found earlier in the week.
On the distaff side, watch mail brought notice that Music Note, third in her final 2008 start, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Classic, is back in training. The 4-year-old filly breezed three furlongs in :37.40 at Keeneland on Saturday. No news yet on where she might debut this year. Possibly Belmont, in a race such as the June 13 G1 Ogden Phipps Handicap?
- It might be too early to start speculating on possible Derby pace scenarios, but with Old Fashioned and The Pamplemousse out, who goes to the front? There’s not a lot of early speed among the remaining probables.
- BSFs: 99 101 (upgraded) for Papa Clem, 95 for General Quarters.
Barring any surprises in the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes, my list of top 10 Kentucky Derby prospects is pretty much settled (although adjustments are likely over the next three weeks to accommodate changes in status, hoof issues, training problems). I Want Revenge is now #1, moving up from #3, off his stupendous Wood Memorial win, which only grew more impressive watching the replay. Something I failed to notice during the race was that Joe Talamo doesn’t go to the whip at any point — after patiently guiding IWR down the backstretch, saving ground and not hustling to make up for the poor start, then splitting horses to get out of traffic coming into the stretch, Talamo handrides IWR to the wire. Amazing.
Quality Road drops to #2, a move I made before hearing the colt has a quarter crack, which is being treated by Ian McKinlay. Imperial Council drops off completely, while Terrain creeps into #10. We’ll see how the under-the-radar colt, third in the Louisiana Derby, does in the Blue Grass on Saturday.
Top 10 for 4/7/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Old Fashioned 6. Friesan Fire 7. Dunkirk 8. Regal Ransom 9. Papa Clem 10. Terrain
How about Rachel Alexandra in the Fantasy Stakes? The embodiment of easy:
Calvin Borel starts mugging on the backstretch, but I can’t blame him. She’s just galloping, the other four fillies totally at her mercy, lolling through unhurried fractions to a final time of 1:43.35, finishing more than eight lengths ahead of Afleet Deceit. On to the Kentucky Oaks …
Odds and ends: Old Fashioned worked five furlongs in 1:00.6 at Oaklawn on Monday. Trainer Larry Jones was pleased with how the colt went around the turn. “That was the big thing.” I’m nonchalantly ignoring Musket Man for now, even though he’s definitely heading to the Kentucky Derby after winning the Illinois. And The Pamplemousse is out, for at least six months, possibly longer. “Our goal is the Pacific Classic [at Del Mar] next year.”
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Jessica Chapel lives in Brooklyn, enjoys horse racing, curates Raceday 360. Railbird v1 was a thoroughbred racing blog that ran 2004-2008; Railbird v2 is a broader collection of notes and links, but still (mostly) about the horses. More ›
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