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Behold the Sure Thing
The easiest 10 cents you could make in racing on Saturday:
It was such a certainty that Beholder would win the $300,000 Grade I Zenyatta Stakes that by the time she had cruised to a 3 1/4-length triumph over second-place My Sweet Addiction at odds of 1-9, Santa Anita was figuring out how much money it had lost. There was a $75,708.52 minus show pool and $4,750.12 minus place pool. Beholder returned $2.10 to win, place and show after finishing the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:42.83.
I cannot wait for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Reality
This may be the truest paragraph in Kay Reindl’s appreciation of horse racing:
The racegoer has made a pact with himself. He knows he’s going to lose more often than he’ll win. He knows that most of the time, he’s going to see ordinary horses doing ordinary things. But he also knows that every once in awhile, he’s going to hit that big payout. And he’s going to see a horse do something that makes him or her seem chosen …
I’ve been thinking about this pact, because racing fans are on a winning streak right now. We’re in that golden glow of our longshots coming in and photos going our way. We have a Triple Crown winner, and he’s racing in the Travers. A two-time champion just became the first distaffer to ever win the Pacific Classic, all but guaranteeing her a third Eclipse title. Wise Dan seems to be his old self and ready to run. The handicap division has bounced back from losses earlier this year with popular Whitney winner Honor Code atop it. It will end, because all winning streaks do. But let’s enjoy the glow as long as it lasts.
8/26/15 Related: “I can’t remember a time when the game seemed more alive. The glow from the Triple Crown has lasted all summer” (DRF+).
“Jess’s Dream is a reality,” said announcer Larry Collmus as Rachel Alexandra’s first foal won his debut, a nine-furlong maiden special at Saratoga on Monday:
The 3-year-old Curlin colt broke slow, fell behind the field by more than dozen lengths, went wide. It wasn’t looking good as he loped along through the first three quarters in 1:13.96 (Trakus time). “I was hoping that he would just hit the board,” said trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Then rider John Velazquez asked him to go: “At the half-mile pole I started getting after him and he started catching up to horses,” said Velazquez. “Once he caught up to the group, he knew it was time to run.” Jess’s Dream went from last to first, ran the final furlong in :12.03, and earned a Beyer speed figure of 90 for the win. TimeformUS gave him a speed figure of 106. McLaughlin said the colt’s next race would likely be an allowance at Belmont.
Rachel’s Winner
Rachel’s got a runner:
The most anticipated juvenile starter of the summer didn’t disappoint in her first afternoon appearance. Rachel’s Valentina went to post as the 6-5 favorite in her debut race at Saratoga on Sunday and won the six-furlong maiden special weight by two lengths over Awesome Dame in a time of 1:10.39. “We knew she was fast but this was a tough race,” said owner Barbara Banke after. “I’m so glad it went well. She was awesome.” (All quotes via NYRA.)
Rachel Alexandra’s 2-year-old Bernardini filly was — as trainer Todd Pletcher said before she started — slow to get going. Jockey John Velazquez had her under a hard ride down the backstretch. She picked up the pace with a strong move on the outside as the field came into the turn and entered the stretch running wide. Once she hit the lead, she didn’t need Velazquez’s encouragement to draw away. “There were no issues saving any ground, going four wide,” said Velazquez. “She really runs.”
Pletcher, who called the race “everything you can hope for in a debut,” said a start in the September 5 Spinaway Stakes was a possibility.
Maybe this is sentiment, but seeing the Stonestreet silks on a bay filly rounding perfectly into the stretch, poised to win, gave me a Rachel Alexandra flashback — for a moment, I thought I was seeing Valentina’s mother. Whatever she does next, I’m glad to have felt that thrill again.
8/3/15 Addendum: Baby’s first Beyer speed figure — 79.
Heft and Gleam
California Chrome returned to the U.S. on Tuesday, his international adventure over. Four Footed Fotos caught him looking ribby on arrival from Newmarket via Amsterdam, but Marcus Hersh reports that he’s now out of quarantine at Arlington Park and already making a better impression (DRF+):
The long trip home this week surely did not help his appearance, but even after just two days here, the colt appears to be headed the right direction. I saw him this morning as he was being hand-walked by groom Raul Rodriguez around the barn of trainer Chris Block, his new digs upon leaving quarantine, and it sure looked like California Chrome already had added a touch of heft and a bit of gleam to his chestnut coat.
The Coburns released a statement about Chrome’s condition on Facebook:
Many people on several different social media sites have concerns about Chrome’s weight. It is our belief that he needs to put on about 150 pounds. We appreciate all of your concerns and hope that you all know that he is in the best hands with Raul and Anna. His health and well-being is our top concern and we are confident that now that he is home and with people he is familiar with things will only get better.
He’s pointing to the Arlington Million, and jockey Victor Espinoza assures fans: “You better believe I will be riding Chromie in the race.”
The Million is a mere five weeks away, though, and Chrome did miss running at Royal Ascot because of a bruised hoof. “It’s going to be a very tough race,” trainer Art Sherman told Art Wilson last week: “He’s going to have all the Europeans coming for that race. It’s going to be a lot to ask of him, I think, personally. I’m just hoping I can get him fit enough.”
7/14/15 Update: California Chrome is done for the year and may be retired. While being vetted for a potential stud deal (which farm?), a cannon bone bruise was discovered in the 4-year-old colt. It’s a minor injury, but it means at least three months off. Retirement apparently isn’t certain. Per a comment on the DAP Facebook page, which is managed by co-owners Perry and Denise Martin, “No one really knows if Chromes Career is over except for Chrome.”
Sherman’s Smile
One morning last week, Sherman, an impish 77 years old, leaned against a white-railed fence outside a horse barn at Pimlico Race Course. “That Secretariat, what a great horse he was,” he said. “I remember watching him run. All these years I’m thinking, I wonder if I’ll ever have a horse like that.” In the early morning light, Sherman shoved his hands a little deeper into the pockets of his green windbreaker, and looked over the top of his eyeglasses. “Well now,” he said, “maybe I do.” And then he smiled his little crooked smile, full of the impossible.
He Likes It
After the Kentucky Derby winner jogged on Tuesday:
[Exercise rider Willie] Delgado said California Chrome seemed to prefer the dirt at Pimlico to that at Churchill Downs. “Churchill wasn’t one of his favorite tracks,” he said. “He just tolerated it.”
California Chrome wasn’t drawing raves for the way he went over Churchill’s surface before the Derby — “not the prettiest mover,” observed Mike Welsch, “Jay Privman said he’s certainly looked better back west” — so it’s interesting to see him praised for how he’s handling Pimlico.
Apparently, he’s also feeling fresh (PDF):
California Chrome … didn’t seem to appreciate being shut down for the day after passing a “Sunrise at Old Hilltop” group near the wire after jogging an easy mile. “Settle down … settle down … settle down,” Delgado calmly asked of his charge as he began applying the brakes.
And holding his weight: Trainer Art Sherman estimates that California Chrome “has put on about 35 pounds since winning the Derby,” tweets Claire Novak.
It’s all looking good for Saturday …
5/15/14 Addendum: What’s this? Chrome coughs; his people say he’s fine.
Slow Enough to Win
Days before the 140th Kentucky Derby was run, Steve Coburn, the co-owner and breeder of California Chrome, made a prediction: “With a good break and a clean trip,” he said, “I think it’s a done deal.”
What was brash on Wednesday became fact on Saturday, as the Derby field rounded the stretch turn and the 5-2 post-time favorite put his head in front and then began to draw away. He got a clean break. He got a clean trip. (The same can’t be said of several other Derby starters.) He even got a reasonable pace to rate off when Uncle Sigh, wearing blinkers for the first time, took the early lead from Chitu and ran the first three-quarters in 1:11.80 (chart).
What he didn’t get was a triple-digit Beyer speed figure for winning the Derby. With a final time of 2:03.66, California Chrome was given a 97, “the lowest for any Derby or Preakness winner since Andrew Beyer has been making figures,” tweeted Randy Moss. His TimeformUS figure also came up slow — chief figuremaker Craig Milkowski gave him a preliminary 104. Both numbers are well off his previous 108 Beyer and 113 TFUS highs. [5/5/14 Update: TFUS has since revised his Derby figure to 110.]
Maybe that the Derby came up slow is part of a trend toward lower figures in classic races, but it was more likely a strong wind. Gene Kershner notes:
[There] was a fairly strong headwind going against the runners down the stretch, which when counting the first run to the clubhouse turn is approximately 40% of the race running …
Byron King also points out that the track (DRF+):
… appeared much drier than for early races and may not have been as well watered as it had been earlier in the day. There was a gap of 2 hours, 43 minutes from the preceding dirt race, the Churchill Downs Stakes.
The Derby fractions from DRF Formulator are interesting:
Runner-up Commanding Curve and seventh-place finisher Ride on Curlin are the only two running sub :26 final quarters, despite the moderate early pace. It’d be easy to be disappointed by California Chrome’s closing :26.21, except the fraction doesn’t match the visual. Watching the replay, he accelerates to take the lead at the top of the stretch, then jockey Victor Espinoza eases up (and puts away his whip) in what looks like a comfortable final sixteenth:
It was an utterly dominant performance not accurately measured by the final margin; California Chrome drew out to a five-length lead with less than an eighth of a mile to run before jockey Victory Espinoza geared him down, rising in the irons two strides before the wire and waving his crop in the air, much as he had done aboard War Emblem 12 years ago.
Going into the Preakness, there’s a case to be made that California Chrome comes out of the Derby a more formidable contender for the second leg of the Triple Crown in two weeks — after his big efforts winning the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky Derby wasn’t a peak performance, at least as expressed in figures. Maybe it didn’t need to be.
Much will depend on how the colt does over the next two weeks and who shows up at Pimlico. Trainer Art Sherman said on Sunday that California Chrome came out of the Derby in good shape, although he did leave a “handful” of grain in his feed tub and that, “He got a little tired, but not too bad.” Alicia Wincze reports his condition as “feisty” this morning.
The Derby winner will stay at Churchill Downs for a few days before heading to Baltimore. His schedule won’t be taxing. “We can light train him over here for a couple of days, kind of just jog him,” Sherman tells Jennie Rees.
Coburn is already looking ahead, past the Preakness, to the Belmont Stakes, his confidence confirmed. California Chrome was the first California-bred to win the Kentucky Derby since Decidedly in 1962. “When he wins the Triple Crown,” said Coburn, “he’ll be the first California-bred to do it.”
– – – – –
About those bad trips … Candy Boy was hard checked on the first turn after fourth-place finisher Wicked Strong crossed his path. Rider Gary Stevens was none too happy after the race, as quoted by the Churchill Downs press office:
“I had a horrible trip. On the first turn Rajiv Maragh came over on Wicked Strong and shut me off. Then he shut [Corey] Nakatani off, causing me to steady again. We’re both lucky we didn’t fall.”
Nakatani was on Dance with Fate, who recovered enough to finish sixth. Candy Boy was 13th; the race is a throw-out for him, whenever he starts next.
Third-place finisher Danza also interfered with Medal Count, veering into his path in the stretch. Sid Fernando helpfully illustrates.
Wise Dan’s Return
The Horse of the Year is set to make his first start of 2014 today, and:
“If he is going to be vulnerable, this is it because the others that are in there have been running,” [trainer Charlie] LoPresti said.
True, but he’s also a returning champion. The odds are good that he’ll win. In 2010, I found that returning champions beat the winning favorites average by a significant margin when they made their first starts of a new season.
The stats for returning champions are now updated through 2012: You can view the numbers and complete spreadsheet via Raceday 360. There are a couple of changes in this year’s version: I restricted the data to only starts made in North American races with wagering (horses who returned in non-wagering exhibition races and foreign races were excluded, as were steeplechase champions). I also broke out the numbers by division and decade this year, as well as by class, which revealed a few interesting tidbits.
One thing I left out of the R360 post, but wanted to make note of, is that all champions, not only the favored, won or finished in the money in 186 out of 228 races (or 82% of starts). Be sure to include them in your exotics.
The original data, including all champions named from 1971-2012, and not only those who returned to race, can be downloaded as an Excel file.
4/12/14 Update: And Wise Dan wins the Maker’s 46 Mile by three-quarters of a length over Kaigun. Here’s the returning Horse of the Year chart, updated:
That brings the returning HOTY record to 18 wins from 23 starts (18 wins from 22 favored), for a total payout of $49.10 on $46 bet.
Breeders’ Cup Favorites
From Jeff Scott’s Breeders’ Cup tidbits:
Favorites won 32 percent (38-120) of races in the sample, a figure comparable to the record of racing favorites in general. The fact that BC fields are considerably larger than average may make the 32 percent strike rate higher than expected.
Favorites have had mixed success finishing in the money in the recent years. In 2012, favorites finished in the top three in five of six races on Friday, six of nine on Saturday. In 2011, three of six on Friday, four of nine on Saturday. In 2010, four of six on Friday, four of eight on Saturday.
10/26/13 Addendum: Breeders’ Cup contenders, by the numbers. “There are 121 group or graded stakes winners in the entries, including 71 winners of Group 1 or Grade 1 races.” And 74 of the 172 pre-entries won their last starts.
Recent Preakness History
Preakness winners 2001-2012, where they finished in the Kentucky Derby, and their Preakness odds / Kentucky Derby winners, where they finished in the Preakness, and their Preakness odds / * = Preakness post-time favorite
About a dozen have been declared as likely starters in the Preakness Stakes, with seven plus Orb coming out of the Kentucky Derby. Looking at the last dozen runnings of the Preakness, one of that group is most likely to beat Derby winner Orb (if he can be beaten). Non-Derby starters have won the Preakness only twice since 2001, both in years of exceptional circumstance.
Kentucky Derby winners have a mixed record over the period listed above, with one DNF, six losses, and five wins. Assuming Orb is the favorite in the Preakness as he was in the Derby, the odds tilt back in his favor with the performance of Derby favorites as Preakness favorites since 2001 — three of the four in that group (Point Given, 1.80 KYD; Smarty Jones, 4.10 KYD; Street Sense, 4.90 KYD; and Big Brown, 2.40 KYD) won the second leg of the Triple Crown. Street Sense finished second to Curlin, the eventual 2007 Horse of the Year. All to say, if you like Illinois Derby winner Departing for the Preakness upset — well, you have to hope Orb’s former Claiborne pasture buddy proves exceptional in more ways than one.
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Jessica Chapel is a digital producer and editor in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published since June 2004. More / Contact
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