Jessica Chapel / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

This Again?

OMG:

“They’ve turned the Kentucky Derby into a guessing game,” [Thoro-Graph proprietor Jerry Brown] fumed. “The introduction of synthetic tracks has created mass confusion among handicappers. In the Derby, you’re left to guess whether a horse can handle dirt after running on synthetics.

“This is an absurd situation to create for people who bet the game seriously. It’s tough enough to beat it with good information and rational thinking, but now you have situations where it turns a race into pure guesswork.”

Actually, the synthetic-to-dirt surface switch seems to be one of the more predictable elements in handicapping the Kentucky Derby in recent years.

1:30 PM Addendum: Dean smartly notes on Pull the Pocket that when it comes to assessing surface changes, handicapping principles still apply, but “the questions you have to analyze just might be a little different.”

Posted in Racing on May 19, 2011 / Tagged Handicapping, Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Speed Figures, Thoro-Graph / 2 comments

The Rule Breaker

What Kentucky Derby rules? Animal Kingdom took care of any that remained before yesterday’s race with his surprise win at Churchill Downs. Although Team Valor’s colt did run as a 2-year-old, as has every Kentucky Derby winner since 1882, he was the first since Exterminator in 1918 to win with a mere four career starts, and he was the first since Needles in 1956 to win off a six-week layoff. He’s the fifth straight Derby winner to prep with only two starts as a 3-year-old, neither of those a Grade 1, and his Beyer speed figure of 103 is the lowest since Giacomo was given 100 in 2005.

Animal Kingdom was also making his first start on dirt in the Derby, coming off a win in the Spiral Stakes over the Polytrack at Turfway. I’ve argued several times here over the past four years, sometimes with stats, that synthetic surface-prepped horses are viable Derby contenders. Next year, such horses shouldn’t be throw-outs for anyone on the basis of surface.

Some photos from Saturday at Churchill …

Mucho Macho Man leaving the barn for the Derby.

Cheering for the Derby starters as they exit the gap.

Midnight Interlude and Shackleford waiting to begin the walk over.

The clubhouse crowd.

Animal Kingdom in the post parade.

Dialed In, the 5-1 favorite, after finishing eighth in the Derby.

Steve Asmussen and Corey Nakatani discussing Nehro’s second-place finish.

Animal Kingdom heading to the winner’s circle.

Posted in Racing on May 8, 2011 / Tagged Animal Kingdom, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby, Photos, Synthetic Surfaces / 3 comments

Updated for 2011

… the prep and historical criteria Kentucky Derby spreadsheet.

Those considering betting Dialed In, the 4-1 morning line favorite, might want to take note that he and Decisive Moment are the the only two Derby starters who have not earned their best Beyer speed figures at a distance of 1 1/16 miles or longer (putting aside Master of Hounds, who has one US start and speed figure in his seven-race career). Going back to 1998, no horse has won the Derby without a best BSF at that distance or longer, and only three of 27 starters who didn’t have a best BSF at 1 1/16+ even finished in the money (a number that includes the filly Eight Belles).

Posted in Racing on May 5, 2011 / Tagged Derby Handicapping, Derby Prospects, Historical Criteria, Kentucky Derby, Spreadsheets / 1 comment