Speaking of the Derby, this year’s historical criteria spreadsheet is running a little late, but can be found here next week. [5/2/12 UPDATED! Now with post positions, equipment changes, jockey changes ...]

The Spaceman is a little more on the ball: Gene Kershner is out with his annual contender spreadsheet, which includes info like historical post position stats. (That’s the kind of stuff that can really help you geek out.) Bonus: He tracked down the saddlecloth colors for this year’s Derby AE list.

A couple of weeks ago, Mike Watchmaker wrote about the decline in triple-digit Beyer speed figures in Derby prep races. Bodemeister did get a 108 for the Arkansas Derby (see all the prep race results), but this year’s Derby prospects haven’t reversed the trend I posted about last year.

“They’ve turned the Kentucky Derby into a guessing game,” [Thoro-Graph proprietor Jerry Brown] fumed. “The introduction of synthetic tracks has created mass confusion among handicappers. In the Derby, you’re left to guess whether a horse can handle dirt after running on synthetics.

“This is an absurd situation to create for people who bet the game seriously. It’s tough enough to beat it with good information and rational thinking, but now you have situations where it turns a race into pure guesswork.”

Actually, the synthetic-to-dirt surface switch seems to be one of the more predictable elements in handicapping the Kentucky Derby in recent years.

1:30 PM Addendum: Dean smartly notes on Pull the Pocket that when it comes to assessing surface changes, handicapping principles still apply, but “the questions you have to analyze just might be a little different.”

Animal Kingdom was also making his first start on dirt in the Derby, coming off a win in the Spiral Stakes over the Polytrack at Turfway. I’ve argued several times here over the past four years, sometimes with stats, that synthetic surface-prepped horses are viable Derby contenders. Next year, such horses shouldn’t be throw-outs for anyone on the basis of surface.

Some photos from Saturday at Churchill …

Mucho Macho Man leaving the barn for the Derby.

Cheering for the Derby starters as they exit the gap.

Midnight Interlude and Shackleford waiting to begin the walk over.

The clubhouse crowd.

Animal Kingdom in the post parade.

Dialed In, the 5-1 favorite, after finishing eighth in the Derby.

Steve Asmussen and Corey Nakatani discussing Nehro’s second-place finish.

Animal Kingdom heading to the winner’s circle.

Those considering betting Dialed In, the 4-1 morning line favorite, might want to take note that he and Decisive Moment are the the only two Derby starters who have not earned their best Beyer speed figures at a distance of 1 1/16 miles or longer (putting aside Master of Hounds, who has one US start and speed figure in his seven-race career). Going back to 1998, no horse has won the Derby without a best BSF at that distance or longer, and only three of 27 starters who didn’t have a best BSF at 1 1/16+ even finished in the money (a number that includes the filly Eight Belles).

Bob Baffert

The big training board

Sway-backed Sway Away

Nick Zito talks, Dialed In walks

Wagner’s Pharmacy

As your local NPR voices say during a pledge drive, it doesn’t matter if you give. Really! It doesn’t. We’re going to be at Churchill Downs starting April 26, publishing daily through May 9, and we know you’re going to enjoy our content, which will be the kind of stuff that gets linked, tweeted, and talked about. Kickstarter may be an all-or-nothing deal — if we don’t meet our funding goal by the deadline, we won’t receive any of the pledges that have been made — but Kentucky Confidential isn’t. Thanks to our sponsors, the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge and Woodford Reserve, as well as committed individual contributors, we’ll be in Louisville next week, bringing you stories from Derby history as well as the backstretch and parties.

But even if we don’t need you to support us, we’d love it if you did. Every dollar raised for Kentucky Confidential goes directly toward covering the costs of producing and publishing original turf journalism. Your contribution will come back to you in the form of stories that surprise and entertain, and handicapping analysis that gives you a fresh look at the past performances.

If you haven’t already, please pledge. We’ll reward your support.

4/21/11 Update: Our Kickstarter campaign successfully ended yesterday. We’re funded! Our thanks to all our contributors and sponsors.

Why support KYC?

The Kentucky Derby is one of the most heavily covered events in horse racing, but rare is the news outlet that treats it as one of the greatest storytelling platforms in American sports.

That’s how Kentucky Confidential will cover the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

What you’ll get:

True (and not-necessarily true) stories from the backstretch
Tall tales and little-known historical marvels from the Derby’s rich past
Kinky stats and contrarian handicapping
Straight-shooting, expert contender profiles and news
Lures and snares of Louisville nightlife and bourbon culture
Video from one of the underground’s best filmmakers

And that’s not all! If you back KYC, you’ll get goodies such as a Jeff Krulik Derby DVD or the chance to submit questions to Derby connections.

If you need another reason:

“… the opportunity is there to create something new. People who think race writing is a dying art, this is your opportunity to support it.”

We begin publishing April 26, and we’ll continue through May 9, running features and stories from writers such as Pete Denk, Claire Novak, Brendan O’Meara, and John Scheinman, illustrated by photos from Scott Serio.

We’ll be at Churchill in 11 10 days, and we’d love it if you joined us.

More than anything, it’s refreshing to see those so passionate about our industry willing to find innovative ways to accomplish their career goals. They are not taking the easy road by using the challenging circumstances we all face to complain about the lack of opportunity. They are creating their future in the industry on their own terms and challenging the marketplace …

“There’s such a paradigm shift that we don’t know the end result or where it’s leading,” said Scheinman. “But the opportunity is there to create something new…. People who think race writing is a dying art, this is your opportunity to support it.”

Absolutely. Pledge, and not only will your support directly contribute to the creation of original Derby coverage, we’ll give you some pretty great rewards to go along with all the stories you’ll find on Kentucky Confidential.

7:30 PM Addendum: I love this comment left by Nancy on the PR piece: “Really excited to get involved with community funded journalism through Kentucky Confidential. As a racing fan, I am thrilled at the opportunity to support racing news and get an inside view of the race. I hope more people help fund this endeavor and others like it! ” Thanks so much, Nancy!