Jessica Chapel / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Updated for 2011

… the prep and historical criteria Kentucky Derby spreadsheet.

Those considering betting Dialed In, the 4-1 morning line favorite, might want to take note that he and Decisive Moment are the the only two Derby starters who have not earned their best Beyer speed figures at a distance of 1 1/16 miles or longer (putting aside Master of Hounds, who has one US start and speed figure in his seven-race career). Going back to 1998, no horse has won the Derby without a best BSF at that distance or longer, and only three of 27 starters who didn’t have a best BSF at 1 1/16+ even finished in the money (a number that includes the filly Eight Belles).

Posted in Racing on May 5, 2011 / Tagged Derby Handicapping, Derby Prospects, Historical Criteria, Kentucky Derby, Spreadsheets / 1 comment

Kentucky Derby Week

Kentucky Derby hats

Bob Baffert

The big training board

Sway-backed Sway Away

Nick Zito talks, Dialed In walks

Wagner’s Pharmacy

Posted in Miscellany on May 4, 2011 / Tagged Backstretch, Churchill Downs, Derby Week, Kentucky Derby, Photos / Comments Off

Conventional Chaos

They should have run this Derby on April 1 — April Fool’s Day — instead of May 7 (BC). “It’s crazy. This is just totally ridiculous.” I guess what I’m saying is, throw out all the rules this year (JS). The attempt to make sense of this group is an exercise in grasping at straws (PM). Is this year’s crop of 3-year-olds — seemingly ill-prepared, not completely fit, and not particularly ambitious — falling into what is now considered American mediocrity (EH)? What once promised to be one of the best Kentucky Derbies in recent years is rapidly becoming silly, as more bad horses point for the race (NK). Who will win? Your guess is as good as mine. This year that’s all any of us can do — guess (BF). “It could be a Giacomo year.” It’s anyone’s year (JC). There are still more twists and turns likely to unfold (JP). So keep looking for a Derby horse — one of them has to win (JD).

Posted in Racing on April 20, 2011 / Tagged Derby Preps, Kentucky Derby, The Storyline, Wide-Open Derby / Comments Off