Not So Blind
I knew I was in trouble with It’s Tea Time when her name kept surfacing in blog posts and tweets Saturday morning as a top Oaks pick. It was shades of Sweetnorthernsaint in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, watching the hype build. “It’s official: the first ‘blogger steam’ horse in history is It’s Tea Time,” remarked @HRFattheTrack. At 7-1, well down from her morning line odds of 15-1, the filly went into the gate as the third favorite.
Blind Luck, of course, was the favorite, and there was no doubt she was a deserving 6-5 at post time as she did her thing in the stretch, ranging up on the outside and nailing the win at wire by a nose over 13-1 Evening Jewel:
Final time for the race was 1:50.70 (chart), for which Blind Luck was given a Beyer speed figure of 94. The official teletimer photo:
It’s Tea Time? She finished ninth.
Earlier on the Churchill card, disappointment for HOTY fans: Rachel Alexandra lost her second start of the year, finishing a head behind 9-1 Unrivaled Belle in the LaTroienne Stakes, prompting Bill Finley — who must have had this piece already written, so quickly did it go up on the ESPN site — to opine,
The prudent course will probably soon become obvious to Asmussen and Jackson, and Rachel Alexandra will be retired. That sure seems like the right thing to do.
But Jess Jackson, in a post-race visit to the press box, said the 4-year-old filly appeared to come out of the race well and would remain in training:
(Paulick Report video of the surprise press conference: Part 1, Part 2.)
While Jackson’s statements may seem a little rushed, I can’t fault him for wanting to check any speculation about retirement; Rachel Alexandra deserves another start. To paraphrase Jay Hovdey, she’s not running badly, she’s just not winning, and there are plenty of races remaining in the year.
11:00 AM Addendum: A final time of 1:42.97 for the LaTroienne, a Beyer speed figure of 103 for both Unrivaled Belle and Rachel Alexandra.
At 15-1, It’s Tea Time
Blind Luck is the dominant favorite in the Kentucky Oaks, which drew a full field of 14, but I’m hoping for a ‘Tea Time’ upset. So is trainer Rusty Arnold:
In recent weeks, however, Arnold has been in rare form, telling anyone who bothers to ask that a filly named It’s Tea Time is approaching the 136th Kentucky Oaks in such fantastic shape that he wouldn’t be surprised if she were to upset the likes of Blind Luck and the other top-class fillies who will clash Friday at Churchill Downs in the Grade 1, $500,000 classic.
I like the confidence of the usually reticent Arnold. But even more, I like the improving filly’s runner-up finish last month in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, in which she narrowly missed beating Evening Jewel:
Favorites for 2009-05-08
Each day, I browse Flickr for interesting racing images. Here are photos recently saved as favorites …
Derby Eve Notes
- First, of course: Rachel Alexandra. Winner of the Oaks by a record 20 1/4 lengths, all while looking like she was out for a jog. “Breathtaking,” “one-of-a-kind freak,” “wow, wow, wow,” and possibly “the most dominating victory in a major race since Secretariat’s Belmont Stakes,” were just a few of the immediate reactions. Magnificent, I’ll add. Awesome. A final eighth in :12.16, a final three furlongs in :37.06, all without jockey Calvin Borel moving. Not a shake of the reins, not a flick of the whip, urged her to that beautiful widening lead down the Churchill stretch.
In the April 18 issue of the Thoroughbred Times, an excerpt from Regret’s 1934 obituary appeared on the final page. Regret was the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby; Rachel Alexandra looked every bit like she could have become the fourth. “Peerless Regret she was hailed and peerless she undoubtedly was,” recalled the writer, “and to this day we have never been able to think of her without that descriptive adjective affixed.” It is now affixed to Rachel Alexandra, wherever her career takes the filly.
- Props to announcer Mark Johnson for making the most of what could have been a bland call and deftly incorporating Borel’s stretch mugging into his patter with impeccable timing: “Borel looks over his right shoulder, no danger!,” he says as the rider’s head ducks. “Over his left shoulder, no danger!”
- Derby picks: Instead of adding to the glut, I’ll point to this page, on which can be found a surfeit of sharp handicapping, selections, analysis, etc. After taking a first pass through the Derby past performances, I landed on Friesan Fire, who I’d previously dismissed except as an exotic possibility, due to the seven week layoff and the lack of a nine furlong prep. I see I wasn’t the only convert — several of the contributors to the HRI Media Poll tabbed him on top, and the Larry Jones trainee is the 9-2 favorite in early Derby wagering. Except — now, I’ve taken a second pass and while Friesan Fire strikes me as a must-use horse, I’m not so confident he’s a winner. (That layoff!) What will I do on Saturday? I’m not sure yet … but I will be using Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, and Dunkirk as A horses; Papa Clem, Desert Party, and I Want Revenge as B horses; Musket Man, Mr. Hot Stuff, and Pioneerof the Nile as C horses. Yes, that’s right … I’ve narrowed the Derby down to nine horses.
- In the second installment of the Blinkers Off chronicles, our special correspondent wades into the sea of humanity that is the Oaks crowd.
- Just a lovely piece of writing: The legend tutors the rookie in Derby riding. “‘An option will open for you,’ the legend tells the rookie … ‘Wait for it. Wait for it to appear. If you move early, you’ll pay the price.’”
It’s Derby Time
But first, a bit about the Oaks (“Just another pretty race“? I prefer not to think so). Post positions for the race, which grew to eight starters, were drawn this morning, with 3-5 morning line favorite Rachel Alexandra landing in stall six, just to the outside of likely second-favorite Justwhistledixie. The rest of field: Tweeter (1), Be Fair (2), Stone Legacy (3), Gabby’s Golden Gal (4), Nan (7), Flying Spur (8).
Rachel Alexandra worked a flying four furlongs in :46.40, the fastest of 26 works at the distance, then galloped out six furlongs in 1:10.60 at Churchill on Monday. “I thought she went too fast, but Calvin swears she does that every time,” said trainer Hal Wiggins, who’d been looking for something more like :48. On an earlier post, Bill, an equine exercise physiologist, remarked that he has a theory explaining the spectacular breeze — “She was properly warmed up for the first time in her life.” I am not an equine exercise physiologist, so really can’t comment, but it does seem plausible that the 30-minute walk she took before working — due, sadly, to a training delay caused by a catastrophic collision — may have had an effect.
Whatever the reason, the work had DRF’s Mike Welsch gushing:
Rachel Alexandra’s final Oaks prep was one of the most eye-catching Derby Week drills witnessed here in recent memory…. The move was reminiscent of, if not even better than, Street Sense’s final Derby prep, right down to the presence of Borel in the saddle…. Rachel Alexandra has been a joy to watch training here all week, and off this work would have been my pick had she taken on the boys in the Derby.
If only she had been nominated to the Triple Crown … instead, she should run away with the Oaks, a prospect that gives me less a case of “Oaks Blues” than “complacent chalk syndrome.” Rachel Alexandra is an exciting sophomore; she’s on the path to 3-year-old filly champion honors. Eventually this year, she’ll meet competition — such as Zenyatta, making her first start of the year on the Oaks undercard in the Lousiville Distaff — that gives her something to do other than cruise down the stretch. It just won’t be in the Oaks.
In Derby news: Two defections, one major, one minor, both sensible. Amid the Twitter discussion regarding trainer Jimmy Jerkens’ decision to pull likely favorite Quality Road from the trail after his second quarter crack trickled blood following a Sunday gallop (“It’s not terribly bad; it’s just not right,” said the disappointed conditioner) Nick Kling pointed me to a column he wrote last year about horses who either never ran again or never returned to their previous form after the Derby. Pulling together data on 78 starters over four years, Kling found a startling percentage essentially ruined by the experience:
A staggering total of 14 came out of the race either never racing again, or starting just a handful of times, unable to regain anything resembling decent form. That is 18 percent of ALL horses who started in the race.
Considering just the horses who had zero, one, or two starts after the Derby, the rate came down to 12.8% — still pretty shocking — strongly suggesting that a Derby start can have a negative effect on an unqualified, under-prepared, or delicate horse, as many observers believe. Not that that’s going to keep a few connections from entering their horses — who realistically have no shot — on Wednesday.
Square Eddie would have been among that group in my handicapping, but the colt developed heat in his previously injured left shin this morning and has been ruled out. “We are extremely disappointed but at the same time extremely grateful that he’s sound,” said trainer Doug O’Neill. It worried me, after reading about Square Eddie’s seemingly rushed convalescence and then the two-week Lexington turnaround, that he’d be pulled up during the race because of a problem. Consider me grateful that he won’t be starting on Saturday.
Odds and ends: So that you don’t miss any Derby coverage, Saratoga Spa has helpfully put together a TV guide for the week. And pay attention to the weather: Rains and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend in the Louisville area. (By the way, did you know that Derby winners on an off track historically pay an average shorter price than those on fast?) New Churchill Downs track announcer Mark Johnson calls Pioneerof the Nile ugly:
I may get told off for this, because I’ve had one or two discussions with people who totally disagree with me, but I think that Pioneerof the Nile has got to be the ugliest horse in the field. It looks like a gawky teenager. It’s got a really thin tail, it looks as though it’s only got half the hair in the tail that it should. It’s got a really long neck and a really small head, and it looks like if it were a human being, it would be a really spotty teenager.
I didn’t notice, watching his Monday work — all I saw was an easy stride and peak form. I did catch, though, General Quarters’ odd gait — his right foreleg appears to have an eggbeater action, which Kerry of Thoroughbred Brief suggested could be because he “looks base narrow and/or toed in.” If ‘Quarters does win the Derby, as Billy Reed says he needs to, that would be another quality he shares with Seabiscuit. Finally, if you’re a New Yorker subscriber, or near a newsstand, check out the profile of trainer Larry Jones in this week’s issue. Also, the notice for a Brooklyn Derby party.
Oaks Notes
The Oaks is always overshadowed by the Derby, but this year seems especially so — perhaps because the race will likely draw a small, modestly accomplished field dominated by the awesome Rachel Alexandra. In a small attempt to redress the imbalance here though, a bit of Oaks news …
- Is D. Wayne Lukas feeling cagey, or cranky? When asked yesterday how far Oaks contender Be Fair had galloped, the trainer replied, “Doesn’t matter. She was strong.” Asked the same question today, he said it was up to others to “figure out” the distance. Be Fair, fourth in the Ashland Stakes, will work Sunday or Monday. Tweeter, Lukas’ other Oaks starter as of this morning, worked five furlongs in :59.80, the best of 30 at the distance.
- The addition of Tweeter — lightly raced, stepping up from maiden company, not without fans on Twitter — brought the likely Oaks field back to seven after it was announced that Fitz Just Right will miss the race due to an ankle chip in her right front, discovered after the filly breezed four furlongs in :49. Stablemate Justwhistledixie equaled that time, then galloped out five furlongs in 1:02.20 over the main track (video).
- Rachel Alexandra had a planned morning off, walking the shedrow instead of going to the track. She’s scheduled to work on Monday, with Calvin Borel up. For that, I would like to be at Churchill …
Notes for 2009-04-16
- Rachel Alexandra turned in a sharp work this morning at Churchill Downs, breezing five furlongs in :59.40 and galloping out six furlongs in 1:11.60. “As usual, she went a little bit faster than I really wanted, but she does it so easy,” said trainer Hal Wiggins, adding the filly would wrap up her prep for the Kentucky Oaks with a work on Monday, April 27. Catching wind of the bullet move, rival Justwhistledixie had this to say on Twitter: “Rumor has it my main competition Rachel Alexandra worked pretty nicely this morning. That’s okay, I get to show my stuff tomorrow morning.” Not only is this year’s 3-year-old crop showing a lot of depth, it’s proving pretty web savvy …
- During last year’s Keeneland spring meet, there was quite a bit chatter about lower handle and fewer favorites winning. What a difference a year makes:
Through April 11, the Polytrack and turf surfaces have been rewarding favorites with a usual share of the winnings. After 67 races, there have been 31.3-percent of the favorites on top, which is only slightly lower than the Thoroughbred racing’s historical 33-percent watermark figure.
Order restored. Maybe the Polytrack isn’t so inscrutable, maybe the stats even out, maybe trainer Dale Romans was onto something when he said last April, “I’m not so sure [betting on Keeneland] would be a problem if it were longer than a two-week meet, so they can get a gauge on who’s running well.” With another year to adjust, seems like bettors now have a better gauge.
Much the Best
Mike Watchmaker asks, “Seriously. How good is Forever Together?” (Beware: DRF+ link.) Just watch the Jenny Wiley stretch run for the answer:
Slow pace, late kick: After Kiss With a Twist takes the field through the first six furlongs in 1:17.12, Forever Together makes her move on the outside, going from sixth entering the stretch to a win in less than 30 seconds (with the final sixteenth in :6.13), all under a handride, becoming the latest Breeders’ Cup winner to return successfully this year. It’s going to be fun watching her campaign through the summer and fall …
Zenyatta too, whenever she debuts. The champion worked six furlongs in 1:10.60 on Saturday in prep for her eventual return. A race in May at Hollywood is a possibility, said trainer John Shirreffs, but nothing is set. Whatever the race, it seems safe to say it’ll be the most anticipated of the spring.
Oaks and Derby odds and ends: Ashland winner Hooh Why is under consideration for the Oaks; no decision yet on Stardom Bound, who gets a new rider in Garrett Gomez. Julien Leparoux picks up the mount on General Quarters, replacing rider Eibar Coa for the Derby. (The General gains a little more credibility with that move.) Pioneerof the Nile worked a bullet four furlongs handily in :46.20 at Santa Anita this morning, Papa Clem arrived at Churchill on Tuesday, and @derbyoaks tweeted that West Side Bernie jogged over the track for the first time today. Also on the grounds and out of quarantine, Desert Party and Regal Ransom. The duo will work over the weekend. Terrain is off the trail: “We just feel he’s not quite a Derby horse,” said trainer Al Stall, who said the gelding would be pointed to the Lone Star Derby instead. If only more connections had the restraint. Instead, come Derby day, “8 or 9 certainly won’t belong at Churchill.”
That gives me an idea: Who are five unlikeliest Derby prospects? The horses you think would be better pointing elsewhere? List below in the comments …
Helmet Clues
Before the Kentucky Oaks, Jerry Bailey kept talking about jockey Gabriel Saez having only three pairs of goggles on his helmet, despite the sloppy track condition, inferring from that little detail that Saez planned to keep Proud Spell close to the pace. He did, and she came home an easy winner …
Thursday Evening Notes
- Quick Oaks picks: Pure Clan, Country Star, Rasierra. I’m leaving out likely favorite Proud Spell, based on her third place finish in the Ashland. It could well turn out that she just didn’t take to the Keeneland Polytrack last month and will return to the form she displayed at the Fair Grounds, but I suspect it’s more likely she peaked beating Indian Blessing in the Fair Grounds Oaks in March. [5/2 Addendum: It's pouring at Churchill this afternoon and the track is a sloppy mess. Rethinking the Oaks, Proud Spell moves back into contention ...]
- Here’s how the Wizard settled on his Derby pick: “Big Brown is brilliant. The others in this race are not.”
- Brilliant or not, Beyer tosses Brown for lack of experience and picks these three: “1. Pyro 2. Z Fortune 3. Gayego.”
- The big news out of Churchill this morning was Big Brown’s fast three furlong :35.40 blowout. Smooth Air also took to the track, going three furlongs in a pedestrian :38.20. Big Brown was headstrong, requiring an outrider to help pull up, which you can see for yourself by visiting Churchill’s video page, a fantastic repository of Derby work and gallop videos. Also of note: Big Brown appeared wearing front wraps, which trainer Rick Dutrow said were nothing to worry about.
- Beware the year of the cicada.
About
Jessica Chapel is a writer and editor living in Cambridge, MA. Railbird v1 was a thoroughbred racing blog that ran 2004-2008; Railbird v2 is a broader collection of notes and links, but still (mostly) about the horses. More ›
Elsewhere
Find Jessica on Twitter and Delicious, Railbird on LibraryThing and Facebook.
Etc.
Links
Search
Side Projects
Spreadsheets/Data
← Home
Copyright © 2000-2010 by Jessica Chapel. All rights reserved.
Site credits: WordPress / DePo Skinny Theme / Dreamhost.