“They’ve turned the Kentucky Derby into a guessing game,” [Thoro-Graph proprietor Jerry Brown] fumed. “The introduction of synthetic tracks has created mass confusion among handicappers. In the Derby, you’re left to guess whether a horse can handle dirt after running on synthetics.

“This is an absurd situation to create for people who bet the game seriously. It’s tough enough to beat it with good information and rational thinking, but now you have situations where it turns a race into pure guesswork.”

Actually, the synthetic-to-dirt surface switch seems to be one of the more predictable elements in handicapping the Kentucky Derby in recent years.

1:30 PM Addendum: Dean smartly notes on Pull the Pocket that when it comes to assessing surface changes, handicapping principles still apply, but “the questions you have to analyze just might be a little different.”

Since 1984, a horse that has started in the Derby has won every Preakness but three…. Fresh horses don’t win the Preakness. Horses coming back two weeks after the Derby do.

With those kinds of odds, passing up a million-dollar purse looks foolish.

Asked if he believed the Preakness would be run next year, commission chairman Louis Ulman said, “I’d say no.”

That state is exploring all its legal options for saving racing dates and the Preakness Stakes. “That could involve seizing the tracks by eminent domain.”

10:30 AM Update: MTHA general counsel Alan Foreman tells the Blood-Horse: “This needs to be solved in the next 48 hours …”

11:55 AM Update: Tentative agreement reached? That’s what Maryland governor Martin O’Malley’s office is telling reporters. (Confirmed. Details TK.)

12/23/10 Update: As Frank of That’s Amore Stable mentioned in a comment below, a compromise deal was reached on Wednesday. The Preakness has been saved; 146 days of racing have been scheduled for 2011. One aspect of the agreement that should please horseplayers is this — horsemen won’t be compelled to lobby for takeout increases, as MID-Penn was demanding earlier.

More from the Baltimore Sun: “The governor’s deal puts racing on life support for at least a year, but it doesn’t change an obviously poisonous ownership structure for the tracks that imperils racing’s long-term viability.”

“This was a different kind of win,” he said. “This was a redemption win. This horse is such a warrior. He wants to win. He tries so hard. So I wanted to win it for the horse, you know, because he tries so hard every time. It’s easy to lose a little faith in him … I heard people say he gets in trouble because maybe he’s not that good. So today, when I saw Martin hit that wire, I was so happy for that horse.”

Sweet vindication, and not only for believing in his horse after all the troubles of Lucky’s last three races, but for making a rider switch from Garrett Gomez to Martin Garcia. “They have been winning at a steady, phenomenal 32 percent clip,” writes John Scheinman of the Baffert-Garcia combo, “and whatever magic the two have between them is alchemic.”

There was no magic for Gomez in the Preakness, riding Dublin for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Post position 12 proved as disastrous as Lukas anticipated when entries were drawn. Explained the rider:

“The first three jumps were not good. He tried to go into the gap and made a right turn with me. When I straightened him, they were all gone and we were pretty much out of it.”

Dublin finished fifth after he exited the gate veering outside. You could say the break cost him the race; he ran the first quarter more than 18 lengths off the lead in a dismal :26 flat. He then ran the second in :23.29, the third in :23.73, and wrapped up in :43.44. All of those times were faster than Lookin at Lucky’s (faster, in fact, than any of the top four finishers). Lucky closed in :43.81 after running splits of :23.45, :23.87, and :24.34. What most struck me, though, looking at the fractions, is how much Dublin’s Preakness run looks like Ice Box’s Derby run, and that the difference in how their finishes are being perceived is a great example of the strength of the visual impact made by a runner-up appearing to close swiftly on a leader in the final yards of a race, compared to an also-ran finishing out of the money.

Both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners will skip the Belmont Stakes, which is lousy news for NYRA, an organization that could use a little financial boost. Baffert said that Lookin at Lucky would be prepped for the Haskell Invitational Stakes on August 1, while trainer Todd Pletcher indicated that Super Saver would be freshened for a late summer return. The Derby winner, apparently looking drawn on Saturday, finished eighth as the 9-5 favorite. “What are you gonna do? It was the two weeks,” said Pletcher.

Or is it that this crop of 3-year-olds isn’t so hot? “You have to wonder about the quality of the group,” says Michael Veitch. Yes, you do, when watching the juvenile champion grind out a short lead over a maiden winner to take the Preakness, and the Derby winner wilts at a mile to finish worse than any other at Pimlico since Monarchos in 2001. Two-thirds of the way through the spring classic season, it’s hard not to think about what could have been: “[I]f Eskendereya had stayed sound,” speculates Steve Crist, “we might well be looking at a runaway Derby-Preakness winner going for a Crown this year.” Watch the Wood Memorial replay if you doubt.

More picks: Horserace Insider, The Rail, Hello Race Fans.

Calvin Borel walks back: Flush with the immediate thrill of a Derby win, the jockey made a bold prediction. “I’m going to win the Triple Crown this year.” This week, he’s feeling more circumspect:

“I knew if he could win the Derby, he’d be really tough in the next two legs,” said Borel. “But to predict a Triple Crown? You just can’t do that. Man, winning it is tough to do.”

Pletcher is feeling good:

“It’s a challenge, for sure. But it’s something you look forward to. To me, there’s nothing as exciting in this game as potentially going to the Belmont with a Triple Crown candidate, and that’s certainly what we’re hoping for.”

Kenny Mayne checks in from Baltimore:

As I climbed four flights of stairs I wondered if we’d have to airlift Hank Goldberg onto the roof. He’s weighed down by that much money.

Changing the subject: I’ve been meaning to return to Wednesday’s post on the Breeders’ Cup, in which I glossed over a couple important points; I might wait another day or two to do so, considering the news this afternoon that MI Developments has voided the Oak Tree at Santa Anita contract. Regarding the discussions between the Breeders’ Cup and Oak Tree about hosting the event permanently at Santa Anita, Oak Tree executive Sherwood Chillingworth commented, “This certainly could affect that in some way.” Understated.

Elsewhere: A short piece about fractions for Hello Race Fans.

“Rachel Alexandra has shattered the perception of the role of female athletes in horse racing,” Pearce said. “When she crossed the line, no one cared about her looks or how much she weighed—they only cared that she won. Do you know what that means for a female in today’s society? This victory was for any woman who has been dreaming since she was a little girl of rounding that final turn, racing neck and neck with a colt, and then sticking out her muzzle to win in a photo finish.”

And:

Women’s pride has had its good days, and this was certainly one of them

Oh, wait … that was Bill Dwyre in the LA Times and he was being serious.

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I’ll be at Monmouth all day Saturday. Any tips from the local railbirds?