… we believe the wind and maintenance and distance … combined to make the final time seem even slower than it really was. California Chrome may not have broken any records, but his TimeformUS Speed Figure suggests his Derby was stronger than some may think.
I guess we won’t know until after the Preakness Stakes, or possibly later in the year, but I share the sense that his Derby win was better than the figures look, especially taking the wind into account for the first quarter, during which California Chrome had to make use of his tactical speed to secure a position rating off the early pace. He’s the only starter who ran a sub :24 first quarter to finish in the top four — the closest any of the other 10 who did the same finished was fifth, and six in that group finished 14th through 19th.
See also: Rob Bingel’s analysis of wind and time in the Derby (PDF) (via).
Related: Bob Ehalt talks to Len Friedman about California Chrome’s 7 1/4 sheets figure, “the slowest number since Cannonade earned an 8 in 1974.”
5/12/14 Addendum: Mike Watchmaker on the Derby Beyer speed figure:
… in this Derby, an incredible 15 of the 19 starters received lower Beyers than they did in their prior starts. In fact, it is incredible when such a large percentage of the field tails off Beyer-wise in any race, and is immediate cause to question the veracity of the winning fig.
The revised TimeformUS figure is roughly equivalent to 103 on the Beyer scale, which is still a regression from California Chrome’s previous 107 and 108, but seems a more plausible number than the 97 Beyer given to the Derby.
Days before the 140th Kentucky Derby was run, Steve Coburn, the co-owner and breeder of California Chrome, made a prediction: “With a good break and a clean trip,” he said, “I think it’s a done deal.”
What was brash on Wednesday became fact on Saturday, as the Derby field rounded the stretch turn and the 5-2 post-time favorite put his head in front and then began to draw away. He got a clean break. He got a clean trip. (The same can’t be said of several other Derby starters.) He even got a reasonable pace to rate off when Uncle Sigh, wearing blinkers for the first time, took the early lead from Chitu and ran the first three-quarters in 1:11.80 (chart).
What he didn’t get was a triple-digit Beyer speed figure for winning the Derby. With a final time of 2:03.66, California Chrome was given a 97, “the lowest for any Derby or Preakness winner since Andrew Beyer has been making figures,” tweeted Randy Moss. His TimeformUS figure also came up slow — chief figuremaker Craig Milkowski gave him a preliminary 104. Both numbers are well off his previous 108 Beyer and 113 TFUS highs. [5/5/14 Update: TFUS has since revised his Derby figure to 110.]
Maybe that the Derby came up slow is part of a trend toward lower figures in classic races, but it was more likely a strong wind. Gene Kershner notes:
[There] was a fairly strong headwind going against the runners down the stretch, which when counting the first run to the clubhouse turn is approximately 40% of the race running …
… appeared much drier than for early races and may not have been as well watered as it had been earlier in the day. There was a gap of 2 hours, 43 minutes from the preceding dirt race, the Churchill Downs Stakes.
The Derby fractions from DRF Formulator are interesting:
Runner-up Commanding Curve and seventh-place finisher Ride on Curlin are the only two running sub :26 final quarters, despite the moderate early pace. It’d be easy to be disappointed by California Chrome’s closing :26.21, except the fraction doesn’t match the visual. Watching the replay, he accelerates to take the lead at the top of the stretch, then jockey Victor Espinoza eases up (and puts away his whip) in what looks like a comfortable final sixteenth:
It was an utterly dominant performance not accurately measured by the final margin; California Chrome drew out to a five-length lead with less than an eighth of a mile to run before jockey Victory Espinoza geared him down, rising in the irons two strides before the wire and waving his crop in the air, much as he had done aboard War Emblem 12 years ago.
Going into the Preakness, there’s a case to be made that California Chrome comes out of the Derby a more formidable contender for the second leg of the Triple Crown in two weeks — after his big efforts winning the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky Derby wasn’t a peak performance, at least as expressed in figures. Maybe it didn’t need to be.
Much will depend on how the colt does over the next two weeks and who shows up at Pimlico. Trainer Art Sherman said on Sunday that California Chrome came out of the Derby in good shape, although he did leave a “handful” of grain in his feed tub and that, “He got a little tired, but not too bad.” Alicia Wincze reports his condition as “feisty” this morning.
The Derby winner will stay at Churchill Downs for a few days before heading to Baltimore. His schedule won’t be taxing. “We can light train him over here for a couple of days, kind of just jog him,” Sherman tells Jennie Rees.
Coburn is already looking ahead, past the Preakness, to the Belmont Stakes, his confidence confirmed. California Chrome was the first California-bred to win the Kentucky Derby since Decidedly in 1962. “When he wins the Triple Crown,” said Coburn, “he’ll be the first California-bred to do it.”
– – – – –
About those bad trips … Candy Boy was hard checked on the first turn after fourth-place finisher Wicked Strong crossed his path. Rider Gary Stevens was none too happy after the race, as quoted by the Churchill Downs press office:
“I had a horrible trip. On the first turn Rajiv Maragh came over on Wicked Strong and shut me off. Then he shut [Corey] Nakatani off, causing me to steady again. We’re both lucky we didn’t fall.”
Nakatani was on Dance with Fate, who recovered enough to finish sixth. Candy Boy was 13th; the race is a throw-out for him, whenever he starts next.
Third-place finisher Danza also interfered with Medal Count, veering into his path in the stretch. Sid Fernando helpfully illustrates.
Untapable gets a Beyer speed figure of 107 for her Kentucky Oaks victory, and a TimeformUS figure of 114, numbers that put her in the same company as Kentucky Derby starters California Chrome and Wicked Strong in their final preps. When the “absolutely fabulous” filly makes her next start, the $4 she paid to win as the favorite on Friday is going to look like big money.
Early wagering on the Kentucky Derby has California Chome as the 2-1 favorite, with 27% of the $3.9 million win pool as of 10:00 AM. My picks in the race are California Chrome – Medal Count – Samraat. See who the Hello Race Fans team likes in all of today’s stakes races at Churchill. Good luck!
It’s not only Derby day, it’s opening day at Suffolk Downs, MAYBE FOR THE LAST TIME EVER, as every notice about the start of the 2014 meet points out. First post is 2:15 PM. Top rider Tammi Piermarini has mounts in eight races.
Go back six years. Other than the experience factor (it’s hard to believe that California Chrome has run 10 times …), I see Big Brown all over again, a really good horse against a far less talented and inconsistent group.
The same thought has crossed my mind. For a refresher, here’s how the 2008 Kentucky Derby field stacked up, Beyer speed figure-wise, in their final two preps and then in the Derby (listed below in order of finish):
Big Brown’s double 106-106 stood out then, and stands out now, much as California Chrome’s 107-108 Beyers do this year:
For comparison, I included the TimeformUS figures for the last two races of the top eight Kentucky Derby points leaders. On that scale, California Chrome is not the topper to date, but his figures are both consistent and easily put him within range of the “typical” TimeformUS winning Derby figure of 115. If you were only handicapping the Derby with ratings, California Chrome looks like a worthy favorite whichever numbers you use. But Brian Nadeau has a few reasons for why you might want to consider some other factors.
A week before the Preakness Stakes, the Baltimore Sun considers the question of why modern-day contenders in Triple Crown races may be slower than past generations. Thoro-Graph founder Jerry Brown disagrees that they are:
Brown’s studies have found that track surfaces are significantly different than they were in the 1970s, with as much as an inch more cushioning and more sand as opposed to hardened clay.
“It’s like they’re running in a sandbox,” he said of contemporary racehorses.
Accounting for this difference, Brown concludes that many of the most impressive runs in Triple Crown and other races have come in recent years.
In Brown’s view, if Orb could be sent back to the 1970s, “the colt would likely be 8-10 lengths faster than Triple Crown competitors from that era.”
One theory, glancingly mentioned in the Sun piece, is that elite 3-year-olds might be slower because they’re underworked, but the work patterns of recent Kentucky Derby winners don’t suggest that’s a major factor, at least, not when looking for a correlation with Beyer speed figures. Orb (104) worked 12 times at an average distance of four furlongs between the start of the year and the Kentucky Derby; 2012 Derby winner I’ll Have Another (101) worked 11 times at an average distance of 6.25 furlongs. While Orb and IHA are outliers in distance, they’re not in number of works, which, going back to 1998, ranged from seven (Animal Kingdom, 2011; Big Brown, 2008; Smarty Jones, 2004) to 14 (Street Sense, 2007; Giacomo, 2005; Funny Cide, 2003; Real Quiet, 1998). The average distance for all was five furlongs. The highest Beyer in the period covered went to Monarchos (116), who had four prep races and nine works at an average distance of 4.75 furlongs. The lowest went to Giacomo (100), who had three prep races and 14 works at an average distance of 5.5 furlongs.