Playing With History
Both Steven Crist and Gary West have hit the Kentucky Derby history books and come up with a couple of angles for sorting out this year’s pretenders from contenders. Crist notes that of the last 12 Derby winners, all started their preps 11-17 weeks before the big race (Daily Racing Form — sub. req.), and West observes that of the last 40 winners, all had experience racing in fields with at least 10 starters before they got to the Derby (Star-Telegram). Put these two factors together, along with the results of recent prep races, and the list of top Derby hopefuls looks like this:
Consolidator
Don’t Get Mad
Galloping Grocer
Going Wild
Greater Good
High Fly
Kansas City Boy
Naughty New Yorker
Noble Causeway
Scipion
Sort It Out
Storm Surge
Survivalist
Vicarage
As every handicapper knows, history offers no guarantees. But this list makes awfully interesting reading. There’s no Rockport Harbor, no Afleet Alex, no High Limit — all horses with tremendous potential who have all started their three-year-old campaigns late, have a two-race prep schedule, or haven’t faced crowded fields. As Crist says, “There are plenty of silly ‘rules’ about winning the Derby that are broken from time to time, and not every historical precedent holds up. Still, those that coincide with common sense are probably worth noting.” I’d agree.
