JC / Railbird

I Take the One Less Traveled By

With less than three weeks to go, Bellamy Road is far and away the Kentucky Derby favorite thanks to his eye-popping, jaw-dropping, 17 1/2 length, record-setting, 120 Beyer figure Wood Memorial win.
That was a pretty good performance.
But the Kentucky Derby isn’t a six furlong sprint with a short field; to the fastest goes the roses isn’t a rule. As Michael Hammersly points out in the Daily Racing Form — sub. req.:

The [best last race Beyer] guarantees you nothing, good or bad. Big figs have gone into the Derby and lost; big figs have gone into the Derby and won. It might mean only that a horse is a good horse, capable of big thing.

There’s also the matter of his inexperience — Bellamy Road has had only five races, in which he’s won four, three of those wire-to-wire — and even with a four week layoff, he can’t escape the specter of bounce. These are objections serious enough that I’ll pass on hopping the Bellamy bandwagon. He’s unquestionably a top five Derby prospect, but he’s no sure thing. I’ll take Afleet Alex, Bandini, and Noble Causeway ahead of George Steinbrenner’s freaky little colt.
Related: “Can Afleet Alex beat Bellamy Road on Derby day? Absolutely,” says Bob Neumeier. (MSNBC)
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