JC / Railbird - No Respect for Giacomo

No Respect for Giacomo

Not one of five turf writers making their Preakness picks choose Giacomo to win (Newsday). Pedigree experts wonder “whether Giacomo’s victory wasn’t a telltale hoof print about the declining quality of the classic American thoroughbred” (Washington Post). And Bill Finley can’t find anything to look forward to this Saturday:

It’s hard to imagine anything too scintillating happening in Saturday’s 130th edition of the Preakness. Not with a Kentucky Derby winner in Giacomo who generates virtually no excitement or buzz. Not with his challengers largely composed of a group of overmatched new shooters and horses who are coming into the race after throwing in a dud in the Derby.

Finley recommends on ESPN.com that fans tune into ESPN Classic before the Preakness and watch Whirlaway.
Poor Giacomo. As my racing companion said, “He ran his heart out. He did what he was supposed to do. He won the Derby, but he’s still a loser.”
So, what are Giacomo’s chances in the Preakness? Not as long as handicappers may think:

The last two long-shot winners of the Derby were also thought to be common horses who took advantage of dream paces.

In 1999, Charismatic, a former claiming horse, stalked a moderate pace and won at odds of 31-1 in a final time that was slower than Giacomo’s. In 2002, Bob Baffert purchased War Emblem three weeks before the Derby on behalf of Prince Ahmed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. The pair liked his front-running victory over a weak field in the Illinois Derby.

Neither the jockeys who let War Emblem loose on the lead in dawdling fractions nor the bettors who dismissed him at odds of 21-1 believed he could lead every step of the way. At the Preakness, Charismatic was sent off at a generous price of 8-1; War Emblem was the 5-2 favorite. Each won convincingly. (New York Times)

Mike Brunker also makes the case for not dismissing Giacomo completely. (MSNBC)
I don’t know yet what I think of the Preakness field. It’s really shaping as an interesting one though, and I’m keeping an open mind until I have time on Thursday or Friday to study the past performances of all the starters. One thing that I can say with certainty is that I won’t be so quick to dimiss history — six of the last eight Derby winners captured the Preakness and 32 of the last 36 Preakness winners started in the Derby (Lowell Sun) — meaning, it’s very unlikely I’ll back Malibu Moonshine or Scrappy T, and Giacomo isn’t looking that bad to me right now.
More: “Yes, 50-1 shots may win the Derby, but predictability reigns in the 14-horse Preakness” (Baltimore Sun); Mike Watchmaker pares the Preakness contenders down into two groups (Daily Racing Form — sub. req.); more Preakness news …

Posted by JC in Triple Crown on 05/17/2005 @ 11:25 am / Follow @railbird on Twitter