We Now Know …
For all the questions Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby raised, the results also answered quite a few: We now know that First Samurai can’t get 1 1/4 mile; that With a City’s win in the Lane’s End was a fluke; that trainer Nick Zito isn’t going to this year’s Kentucky Derby, and neither is Strong Contender; and that Todd Pletcher probably isn’t going to get his first Derby win three weeks from now, although Bob Baffert may well get his fourth.
Baffert gained a third Derby starter when Sinister Minister won the Blue Grass Stakes wire-to-wire in the sizzling time of 1:48.85. The colt earned a 116 Beyer speed figure for the race, the highest figure scored by any horse so far this year. “I was hoping he would really pour it on today, so it was pretty exciting,” said Baffert after. “He’s a free-running horse, and you can’t rate him. He just takes off fast. This horse, I just think he’s waking up at the right time. I don’t think Brother Derek can get in front of this guy; I don’t think he wants to.” Retired jockey Gary Stevens, doing commentary for TVG, gushed about the performance:
“This has to be one of the finest displays of training in Baffert’s legendary career,” writes Brian Turner of the Blue Grass results on Brisnet. “It was only back in January that the colt broke his maiden for a tag and then he moved into the three-time Derby winner’s barn. Sinister Minister showed marked improvement in each of his two starts since and looked absolutely dazzling in winning the Blue Grass.”
He looked dazzling indeed, crossing the wire 12 3/4 lengths ahead of Storm Treasure, with Strong Contender coming in third, but the debate has already begun (and will only intensify in the next three weeks) as to whether or not the Blue Grass was a “freaky” race: Is Sinister Minister genuine, or is he a case of cheap speed emboldened when let loose on the lead over a speed-favoring track? A case can be made either way: Keeneland is notoriously kind to speed, although on Saturday that bias wasn’t particularly pronounced, with several (like Sun King in the Commonwealth) managing to come from off the pace to win.
I’m inclined to see the race as freaky, and not merely because of any possible track bias: The fact is that Sinister Minister, previously the winner of only a maiden claimer, won in super-fast time with another maiden winner, the 65-1 shot Storm Treasure, finishing second, both leaving graded stakes winners First Samurai and Bluegrass Cat in the dust, as well as the much-hyped and highly regarded Strong Contender. The only way to explain results like that is with words like freaky and bizarre, and one of the few things that can be taken with certainty from this race is that Sinister Minister, a colt that even his trainer calls unrateable, is sure to set a hot pace in this year’s Derby.
Also almost as certain is that he won’t be left alone again. As John Clay points out, most of this year’s top prospects “are of the mad-dash variety.” If they don’t necessarily have to set the pace, they like to be near it. Think Brother Derek, Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint — and Arkansas Derby winner Lawyer Ron, who took the lead after the first quarter and easily trounced his competition:
Lawyer Ron earned a 98 Beyer for the race, which had a final time of 1:51.38, with the last furlong run in a slow :13.6. There was nothing too surprising about the results — it’s long been clear that Lawyer Ron is the best of the Oaklawn contingent, although he’ll be dogged by questions about his (lack of) speed and headstrong nature until the Derby — but it was nice to see Private Vow flash a little of his two-year-old form, briefly challenging Lawyer Ron in the stretch before he faded to third. Steppenwolfer closed well for second.
