JC / Railbird - Post Positions Drawn Today

Post Positions Drawn Today

– Kentucky Derby post positions will be drawn late this afternoon; a full field of 20 is entered. While Flashy Bull is in, thanks to Mister Triester’s defection, Sunriver and Sacred Light (21st and 22nd on the graded earnings list) were shut out. Trainer Todd Pletcher is already making alternate plans for Sunriver. “I would consider the Peter Pan … or the Sir Barton,” said Pletcher on Tuesday. Trainer Dave Hofmans entered Sacred Light in an allowance race that’ll be run on the undercard.
ESPN will air the draw from 5-6 p.m. Over on the Blinkers Off blog, Joe has done some homework and come up with starting position stats to keep in mind while handicapping this Saturday’s race. Middle positions and the auxiliary gate were popular last year — trainer Nick Zito put favorite Bellamy Road in the 16th spot, Pletcher placed Bandini in the 15th, and Afleet Alex went into the 12th — it’ll be interesting to see if those stalls are similarly favored today.
– There are knocks against all three of the likely favorites: Lawyer Ron has low Beyers, Brother Derek prepped in California against small fields, and Barbaro will go into the Derby off a five-week layoff, which trainer Michael Matz doesn’t think is much of an issue. “I just don’t understand it,” he said. “If somebody could explain it to me, maybe I would understand it more.” Bill Finley tries:

The last horse to win the Derby off a layoff of more than four weeks was Needles way back in 1956. Since, 33 have tried and lost. That includes the one-two finishers in last year’s Florida Derby, High Fly and Noble Causeway. Both ran miserably five weeks later at Churchill Downs.

Matz has a point when he says that the Florida Derby was switched to five weeks before the Derby only last year and that prior to that there were no significant preps run on that spot on the calendar. He believes that there’s not much of a sample to go on when assessing horses coming into the Kentucky Derby off five-week layoffs, and he may be right.

The five-week layoff is a problem for most horses — it’s one reason I’ll probably toss Sharp Humor — but Matz is right that Barbaro is one horse where the five-week layoff rule doesn’t really apply. If Barbaro loses, it won’t have anything to do with the timing of his prep schedule — this is a colt, after all, who’s run (and won) every race of his career off a five to eight week layoff — it’ll be because he doesn’t show the same late kick on the dirt that he does on the turf. In both his dirt starts, Barbaro ran slow closing fractions. Watch the Holy Bull and see how quickly Great Point gains on him in the final sixteenth. Should Barbaro get the lead in the Derby, he’ll be vulnerable to a closer.
– Sweetnorthernsaint is the wise-guy pick, but could he be the horse to beat?
– More Derby news >

Posted by JC in Racing on 05/03/2006 @ 11:45 am / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Follow @railbird on Twitter