Derby Picks
– There probably won’t be any 50-1 plays or life-changing scores for me this year: I like Sweetnorthernsaint, Point Determined, A.P. Warrior, Bob and John, and Brother Derek. Unfortunately, neither Sweetnorthernsaint nor Point Determined is likely to go to post anywhere near their morning line odds — both have picked up a lot of support over the past couple of days. Sweetnorthernsaint is this year’s so-called wise-guy horse, even though by almost every conventional measure (Beyer, history, pedigree, record) he should be one of the favorites. I know that no matter how I try to break down the race, he comes out on top every time — with Point Determined and A.P. Warrior not too far behind.
The one likely favorite I won’t play — and not just because of too-low odds — is Barbaro. Although he comes into the Derby undefeated and hasn’t missed a step prepping for it (and even though I worked for Michael Matz last summer at Saratoga and spent a good chunk of every morning for the first three weeks of the meet with Holy Ground, a half-brother to Barbaro, which makes the colt a sentimental pick if I was so inclined), I can’t get past his slow closing fractions on the dirt. I don’t doubt the son of Dynaformer can get the distance; what I do doubt is his ability to hold off any late challengers.
Of course, there are still more than 24 hours remaining, and I haven’t entirely dismissed the chances of Sinister Minister or Lawyer Ron, who I’m likely to include in a trifecta box with Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined, yet …
– Other people’s picks: Alan at Left at the Gate is wavering, but still likes Bob and John on top with Point Determined, AP Warrior, Keyed Entry. Andrew Beyer likes A. P. Warrior, Point Determined, and Barbaro; Mike Brunker will play Bob and John, Brother Derek, and Point Determined; Bill Finley picks Point Determined, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Steppenwolfer; Kevin Modesti thinks Brother Derek, Barbaro, and Bob and John can go the distance; Paul Moran is going with Sweetnorthernsaint, Barbaro, and Showing Up; and Jennie Rees likes one in particular: “A.P. Warrior is pretty clear-cut.”
– Washington Post racing correspondent John Scheinman had Giacomo last year — really — and this year he likes Sweetnorthernsaint. Pay attention: The scribe knows how to handicap.
– Derby weather: Partly sunny, with a high of 68.
– More Derby news >
