Breeders’ Cup Picks
– Juvenile Fillies: Bel Air Beauty, Quick Little Miss
Bel Air Beauty is an unknown on the dirt, with her first two starts over Polytrack, but she showed tactical speed winning the Alcibiades and put away favored Untouched Talent with ease in the Keeneland stretch. Quick Little Miss has been beaten by likely second favorite Cash Included twice, by seven lengths in the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita and four in a maiden special at Del Mar, which is a lot of ground to make up in the BC, but Cash Included’s morning line odds are 3-1 and Quick Little Miss’s 30-1, making the filly an enticing longshot to play underneath.
– Juveniles: Stormello, Circular Quay
The one race I don’t have a strong opinion about. Stormello showed great improvement winning the Norfolk, while Circular Quay has the best career record. Really, though, this race could go to any number of starters.
– Filly and Mare Turf: Ouija Board
Ouija Board will have a worthy competitor in three-year-old phenom Wait a While, but the 2004 winner of this race is simply the best in the field, coming into it after facing — and beating — some of the best male turf horses in the world over the past year.
– Sprint: Bordonaro, Siren Lure
Bordonaro is pure West Coast speed and he can wire this field. But should he and likely favorite Henny Hughes end up in a disastrous speed duel, Siren Lure could be right there to pick up the win.
– Mile: Echo of Light, Araafa, Librettist
– Distaff: Round Pond
Round Pond has many factors in her favor: A trainer change, third start off a layoff, and room for improvement, and at morning line odds of 15-1, she’s well worth a straight win bet.
– Turf: Hurricane Run, Scorpion, English Channel
Arc winner Hurricane Run appears to have gone off form, with two recent flops on his record. Even at his worst though, Hurricane Run stand outs in a mixed field of overmatched locals and miscellaneous foreigners. Scorpion is a dangerous possibility, and English Channel has done little wrong this year (he’s also won at 1 1/8 over the Churchill turf, beating Cacique). One I’ll pass on is Cacique. Churchill reports the turf as firm today and that’s compromised him enough in the past that at 4-1 against Euros and English Channel he’s a likely underlay here.
– Classic: Invasor
Bernardini is the even money morning line favorite and for good reason: He comes into the Classic off a string of dominating wins and shows a line of ascending Beyers. In fact, his last three Beyers are higher than the lifetime best of any other starter in the field. But I won’t be playing him: He’s a three-year-old facing serious older competition — Lava Man, Sun King, and Invasor won’t be as easily dispatched as Wanderin Boy or Andromeda’s Hero — for the first time and the Classic field is twice as large as any in his last three races.
Invasor has a gap in training, having missed the Jockey Club Gold Cup due to a fever, but he appears to be coming up to the race well. He was tough in the Whitney, recovering from a stumble at the start, making a big move going into the stretch, and digging in to hold off Sun King at the wire. He’s undefeated in the US this year, and he’ll top my tickets.
