Hollywood Pick 6
You have to feel sorry for whoever it was holding the lone live pick six ticket going into the ninth race at Hollywood on Sunday. That was one bad beat, losing the chance to take down the entire pool when Candygram finished a head behind Warren’s Kitten. But not too sorry, because now there’s a giant two-day pick six carryover of $850,466 at the track for the rest of us to take a shot at. Let’s take a look at the sequence …
Race 3: 1 1/16m, turf, starter allowance, 3YOs and up. Casual Thunder makes his second start off a layoff, finished third against similar last month … Lisa Lewis sends out Duty Roster, a deep closer stretching out from six furlongs … Rival Islands seemed to like the surface and distance changes he got in his last, where he finished ahead of Casual Thunder by 1 1/2 lengths.
Race 4: 5f, synth, maiden claiming, 2YO fillies. Christopher Paasch, who does pretty well with first timers, sends out Steel Kitten. She’s by Pine Bluff, who bequeaths some class but only scores with around 8% of his firsters … King City Kitty, by freshman sire Gotham City, has shown some speed in the morning and has a solid workout record … Skipper Mike finished second in her debut at the same level and gets blinkers, but has had no works in three weeks … Clever Lady is the most experienced of the bunch and drops from the maiden special weight level.
Race 5: 1m, turf, allowance N1X, 3YOs. Robbos Courage was scratched from Sunday’s Laz Barrera for this softer spot. Finished by less than a length to Euroglide in his last and is making a second start off a layoff. May be the speed in what looks like a paceless race … Bernasconi makes his second US start for trainer Pat Gallagher. Finished third in his last, which was won by Silent Soul (second in the Will Rogers to Wordly). Probably has the most upside … Unusual Suspect looks a cut below, but he’s another making a second start off a layoff and figures to like the distance and surface.
Race 6: 1 1/16m, synth, maiden claiming, 3YOs and up. Bob Baffert sends out Lotta Gamble, who’s making his third career start and dropping from $75,000 to $32,000 here. Flashed a smidge of speed in his last. Could improve … Headcoach is another taking a class drop after disappointing as the favorite in his last start.
Race 7: 6f, synth, allowance N1X, 3YOs and up. Idiot Proof makes his third start off a layoff. Finished fifth in the San Pedro on April 8 after setting the pace, which he’ll likely do here as well. He’ll be tough to beat … Saintly Son goes out for Jeff Mullins, gets a jockey switch to Richard Migliore … Pick Vic will take money off his big Beyer maiden win.
Race 8: 6f, claiming, 4YOs and up, state-bred fillies and mares. O Bee Naki drops to $10,000 from $20,000 after proving herself uncompetitive at the higher level lately. She did win a starter allowance at the distance last November though … Jimmie Pong and Sexy Operator will likely figure in the early pace but I wouldn’t look for either at the end … Star Quality, claimed for $25,000 in February, seems to have found her level at a lower price. She came in second in her last, her first in the money finish in five starts.
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Wednesday’s pick six pool climbed past $4 million, without my help. I was looking for a way to play until the early afternoon, when I just had to admit my options were a conservative $32 ticket or a big $576 ticket, and I didn’t feel that great about either one. I added the pick six to my repertoire early this year, after circling around the wager for a while. My bankroll isn’t huge, but when I looked at my wagering records last year, it became pretty clear that I do best with wins, exactas, and multi-race exotics. Playing an occasional pick six actually made sense. But I’m rigorous about the plays — I like to there to be no more than one race I’m going into deeply because it looks chaotic and I prefer one solid single. I’ve had a little luck with the approach, and on Wednesday, it saved me some money when I had to concede that there just wasn’t a good play for me. If I’d gone with the $32 ticket, I’d have hit 3-for-6. With the $576, 4-for-6. Ouch.
