Handicapping Polytrack
Del Mar opens Wednesday with a new Polytrack surface and reduced banking on the turns (DRF+) and cautious handicappers will watch intently the meet’s first days (North County Times) to see how the synthetic track plays. Almost certainly, the surface will evince qualities noted on other synthetics: It’ll be fairer, kinder to closers, crueler to speed. For those wondering how to handle this strange new world in which speed doesn’t always rule, Del Mar offers a James Quinn piece on Polytrack handicapping (PDF). I’m no Quinn, but here’s what I’ve noticed about synthetic surfaces:
– Fewer races are won wire-to-wire (handicapper Mike Maloney offers some interesting numbers about this in the Handicappers Expo panel on synthetics, now on DVD), but legitimate speed retains an advantage, especially in sprints. In one small test of Hollywood results I did, 26 of 262 starters in 36 races (all on the main track, all non-maidens) could be classified as “Early,” meaning their average position at first call was on the lead or less than one length off the lead. Of those, 10 won. That 28% win rate is 11% less than a similar sample from the previous year, but still a powerful number.
The key though is determining what’s legitimate speed — synthetics expose cheap speed for what it is, allowing horses coming from off the pace or far back to run their races. We call this “favoring” closers only because speed horses and speed-biased dirt tracks have become so dominant. We’re seeing a shift to a world of truer pace. Handicap through that lens on synthetics, rather than that of bias, and you’ll be rewarded.
– Class matters on synthetics. Horses must fit, and must be fit enough for, the level at which they’re starting. Horses running back to the same class level or dropping a bit run better than their odds, and this is especially true when going turf to synthetic.
– Pedigrees can offer clues to how horses will handle synthetic surfaces. For a long time, I paid little attention to breeding. Synthetics changed that, as it became apparent that the surface wasn’t turf or dirt and that there are sires whose offspring perform well specifically on the surfaces. Arlington Park handicapper Joe Kristufek has identified several sires with exceptional success on synthetic tracks: Belong To Me, Chester House, Chief Seattle, Honour and Glory, Skip Away, and Slew City Slew. In Excess, Lit de Justice, and Tribal Rule have also sired multiple synthetic surface winners.
Related: Hollywood’s first spring-summer meeting on Cushion Track ended a huge success: Handle broke records, attendance was up, and even field size increased, the track announced. Del Mar officials must be hoping they can report similar triumphs come September.
Contrary opinion: John Mucciolo probably won’t be playing Del Mar: “I have had enough! Average animals taking home the trophies in our biggest events, ridiculous results from day-to-day, top horses failing to produce on synthetic ovals, when will the madness stop?”
