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Archive for 2007

Dire Predictions

Should IRS claims that NYRA owes $1.6 billion in back taxes prevail, Paul Moran sees a grim future for racing:

The IRS asserts that NYRA owes taxes on gross handle, not takeout, a claim that could have (seriously) devastating consequences not only for NYRA, but racetracks across the country. More over on Left at the Gate.

Posted in NY Racing Issues on November 2, 2007

Five for Cornelio

– Fresh off wins with War Pass in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kip Deville in the Mile last Saturday, jockey Cornelio Velasquez won five on Aqueduct’s Wednesday card, including the overnight Wild Again Stakes with C P West, who scored his first victory since a debut win at Saratoga in 2006. Second to Divine Park in the Withers and to Street Sense in the Jim Dandy, the Nick Zito-trained colt finally met some competition more his speed.
– One to add to the watch list: Music Note, a two-year-old A.P. Indy filly trained by Tom Albertrani making her second start, “ran away when asked” in the second race at the Big A this afternoon and looked quite good doing so, wrapping up the one mile MSW in 1:34.91, 7 1/4 lengths ahead of Color Me Up, while under only a handride. She’s a half-sister, out of the unraced Sadler’s Wells mare Note Musicale, to the mare Musical Chimes, who won the 2004 Mabee Handicap over Moscow Burning and edged Buckland Manor and Singletary to take the 2004 Oak Tree Mile.

Posted in Aqueduct on November 1, 2007

Back in Training

The sensational three-year-old filly Magnificience returned to training two weeks ago and is about six weeks away from her first workout in months for trainer Bruce Headley, reports Daily Racing Form:

Magnificience attracted attention last winter with a brilliant debut win at Santa Anita, in which, after walking out of the gate and trailing the field by 10 lengths during the first quarter, she made a big move up on the outside and surged away to a 6 1/2 length lead (video). She followed up that scintillating performance with a record-setting romp in the Santa Paula Stakes (video). Considered a potential rival to Rags to Riches last spring, Magnificience was sidelined in April with a chip in her left front ankle. Much to prove, but very exciting to have this one back.

Posted in Horses on October 31, 2007

Beyers, Pre and Post BC

Intrigued by Steven Crist’s post comparing the Beyer figures Breeders’ Cup runners earned over the rain-soaked Monmouth surfaces on Saturday to their previous efforts, which included a chart showing that only 20 of 77 (26%) equaled or surpassed their last figure, I took a look at the 2006 and 2005 Breeders’ Cup numbers, and found that the 2007 percentage of non-progression, while it seems low and potentially indicative of horses not handling the slop or soft grass, might not be that far off. In 2006 (applying the same criteria as Crist), 22 of 86 (25.6%) runners matched or bettered their Beyers; in 2005, 26 of 81 (32%) did so:

What I find interesting about the numbers, and maybe more suggestive of horses not running their races, is the pattern of Beyers in each race and the difference between the two previous years, which were run over dry tracks, and 2007. There’s a flattening in the 2007 figures, with fewer big Beyer changes and no horse finishing worse than fifth showing any improvement. This year’s Classic is the race that appears most odd in comparison: Both 2006 and 2005 look formful, Beyer-wise, for all runners; 2007, not as much.
11/2 Addendum: A note from reader Richard raises a good point: “I think something unmentioned is the idea that most horses’ Beyer numbers are likely to go down when the competition toughens up. The BC participants’ prep races are versus softer competition and therefore they can perform better and earn a higher Beyer number. But as the numbers from the past three years show, stiffer competition separates the men from the boys, so the boys’ numbers regress while the men’s numbers get better.” Absolutely. There’s a relationship between class and speed that wasn’t addressed in this short post; it is very likely that the depth of Breeders’ Cup races results in regression for a number of starters, explaining why only a minority can match or better a previous performance, as measured by the figures. “Class will trump speed figures,” Richard writes, and while that’s not always so, it’s a heedful warning that relying too much on Beyers, or any one factor, will lead the handicapper astray, especially when talking about this level of racing …

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 30, 2007

New York Dominates

– One of the can’t-miss stories of the Breeders’ Cup was the dominance of New York-prepped and based horses in every race. As Mike Watchmaker points out:

Nine of the 11 Breeders’ Cup race winners — Maryfield, Corinthian, Indian Blessing, War Pass, Lahudood, Midnight Lute, Ginger Punch, English Channel, and Curlin — made their last starts at either Belmont Park or Saratoga. This made for an imposing success rate for New York preps of 81.8 percent. And it should be noted that one of the other two Breeders’ Cup winners at Monmouth, Mile winner Kip Deville, is New York-trained. (DRF+)

Eye-catching stat. It’ll be interesting to see next year, when the Breeders’ Cup is run over the Santa Anita Cushion Track, if the results tilt toward synthetic-surface prepped horses and if trainers, anticipating that trend, send more horses west to run at Del Mar and Oak Tree.

– Let the Derby drums begin beating for War Pass: The undefeated Juvenile winner scored a Beyer speed figure of 113 for the race, which I suppose fits the final time of 1:42.76, but obscures how slow the colt came home, running the final sixteenth in :7.12 and the final quarter in :25.99. Something to keep in mind for next year as the Derby prep season heats up …

– Midnight Lute, for his brilliant last-to-first Sprint win, earned 108, off 16 points from his monster Forego performance last month. Trainer Bob Baffert said on Sunday that Midnight Lute would race next year and could possibly start once more this year, in the Cigar Mile. “We’ll play it by ear regarding one more possible start this season,” he said. “We’ll let him tell us” (DRF).

– Bill Finley has no confidence that Curlin will race as a four-year-old. “Racing is just like everything else these days. It’s always about the money” (ESPN).

– Ray Kerrison’s Breeders’ Cup day was “a fiasco rescued by some good luck” (New York Post). Mine was mostly fiasco.

– Owners begin transferring horses from trainer Patrick Biancone’s barn: Lady of Venice goes to Kiaran McLaughlin, Belgravia to Todd Pletcher (Blood-Horse).

Posted in Breeders' Cup on October 29, 2007