JC / Railbird

That quote comes from Tim Tullock, who to date has started ONE horse at Churchill, and it wasn’t in the Kentucky Derby.
The Derby is a tough race to be sure, but the Preakness is no picnic either.
That was a nice enough win today, though.

Posted by Eddie D. on March 22, 2008 @ 10:05 pm

What struck me most, Railbird, reporting out that story was the realistic, careful nature of the Maryland trainers. In hindsight, however, I think I may have overestimated the quality of the local batch. Everything on paper in the Form told me Double Or Nothing could not win except for one giant detail: Richard Dutrow Jr.
As for Gattopardo — is he named after the old Visconti film (1963)? — he won’t go to the Preakness unless he wins the Bay Shore and, perhaps, the Withers. I recommend readers so inclined do comprehensive research into his pedigree because it is busting out with exciting runners from the past, dirt and turf. Exciting horse. — J.S.

Posted by J.S. on March 23, 2008 @ 1:02 pm

Bay Shore-Withers-Preakness?
Pass.

Posted by EJXD2 on March 23, 2008 @ 7:11 pm

The Visconti film is based on the novel of the same name-Il Gattopardo–by Sicilian novelist Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa–a fantastic read that reeks of Sicilian history for those so inclined.

Posted by Teresa on March 23, 2008 @ 9:02 pm

Thanks for the recommendation, Teresa. I’ll have to check out Il Gattopardo.
That’s what struck me about the story, JS. All the trainers seemed so reasonable. As for Dutrow, you have to bump up your estimation of any horse he sends AQU-LRL or LRL-AQU, regardless of what the pps show. I’ve learned that the hard way.
Remember, Ed, Scrappy T went from the Withers to the Preakness. The exacta with Afleet Alex paid $152.

Posted by Jessica on March 24, 2008 @ 7:42 am

I’d like to ammend my prior statement: I was right, after all, about the Maryland horses. I reached my chief compadre, the esteemed Mr. Beyer, in Uruguay and asked him about his team’s calculations for this weekend’s races. The Private Terms at Laurel was the fastest of the three “major” 3-year-old races. Big Glen got an 82 for the Rushaway, the visually impressive Adriano received a 92 for the Lanes End, and Double or Nothing put the hammer down with a 94 in the Private Terms. Further, as they are prone to do, the Beyer boys reassessed the races of March 1 and now have given Gattpardo a 103 for his performance in the Miracle Wood, which, by the way, ought to be graded. Here are horses that finished top 3 in the Miracle Wood: Malibu Moonshine, Water Cannon, Gimmeawink (All, I believe, earned at least in the $4-500,000 range), Talk Is Money (Derby starter), Marciano (Preakness), Gators N Bears (first-rate sprint star), Bay Eagle . . . Anyway, with a 103 Beyer in the holster, I think that Bay Shore-Withers-Preakness move is looking pretty good. And here’s a scary question, if a second-stringer like Double Or Nothing is that good, what about the rest of Dutrow’s barn? — J.S.

Posted by J.S. on March 24, 2008 @ 9:22 am

A horse named Bernardini went from the Withers to the Preakness too. He was a little better than Scrappetariat.
Good points about the Miracle Wood winners, John, but wouldn’t the purse have to be $100,000 or is it $75,000 for graded?
I loved Gators N Bears back in the day.

Posted by EJXD2 on March 24, 2008 @ 9:54 am

Bernardini! I knew there was another recently. Just proves the point, though — Withers to Preakness is a viable path, not an automatic pass.

Posted by Jessica on March 24, 2008 @ 10:50 am

The Withers is fine; the Bay Shore is sketchy.

Posted by EJXD2 on March 24, 2008 @ 4:31 pm