JC / Railbird

I’m not sure Sinister Minister is apt here. I mean, everyone recognized his win as a bias-aided victory on the old Keeneland conveyor belt, right?
I understand the excitement over Big Brown’s performance. It was as good as it good have been. I don’t understand the hysteria over taking 7-to-2 on this horse in the Derby. He can beat me all day at that price.

Posted by EJXD2 on April 2, 2008 @ 10:32 am

Here’s one word that might remind him the colt only has 3 starts: Curlin.

Posted by Superfecta on April 2, 2008 @ 10:54 am

I love it: he can win the Triple Crown, with two major IFs following. IF his feet are OK; IF he can overcome lack of experience.
Let’s play this game with the other horses: (Fill in the blank) can win if (fill in the blank) and if (fill in the blank).

Posted by Teresa on April 2, 2008 @ 11:11 am

I like this game: War Pass can win the Triple Crown IF he overcomes his pedigree and IF he can go wire-to-wire in each race.
Next?
Maybe Sinister Minister isn’t a perfect analogy in this case, although I do remember a few War Emblem comparisons and excessive enthusiasm from some quarters. Nothing like Bellamy Road, though, or what’s building around Big Brown.
Doing something Curlin couldn’t do — that would be something.

Posted by Jessica on April 2, 2008 @ 12:16 pm

I could not have said it better Mike. That was the most dominating winner I’ve seen when you put it in perspective. Considering his post and lack of experience, he made the others look like 10 claimers. The best part – he does not HAVE to lead, as seen in his allowance win this year. Any trainer seeking to put a rabbit in the race will just be assuring Big Brown the track record time.

Posted by F.K. on April 2, 2008 @ 12:57 pm

Majestic Warrior could win IF he could sprout wings or IF he could jump into the race at the quarter pole.

Posted by Trevor on April 2, 2008 @ 2:23 pm

F.K.: Big Brown didn’t make the field look like a bunch of $10,000 claimers, but he did make himself look like a Grade 1 horse facing a bunch of Grade 3 horses, which is likely what the race was.
Still, that doesn’t translate to an automatic Kentucky Derby win to me, and certainly not at the price.
He will be an unbelievable underlay in the future wager this weekend given that I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses the Derby!

Posted by EJXD2 on April 2, 2008 @ 4:07 pm

Not only will he make it to the dance, but, (given Rick Dutrows earlier statements regarding his fitness prior to his first two races this year and the challenges he faced due to quarter cracks), he should DESTROY the field even more convincingly. The decision to race him last weekend was brilliant as the 5 weeks will allow Dutrow to get him to peak fitness, something he has not yet seen according to the trainer. This is not a normal racehorse ladies and gentlemen. I have been watching the replays of all 3 of his races and never have I seen anything like this animal. If you watch the replay of his first race where he cut fractions of 23.19, 47.54, 1.11.84, 1.34.46, and finished in 1.40.33 you will see he was actually going faster at the end than at the beginning. I’ve only seen that in harness racing and that was his FIRST race. When he took off on the last turn Rose’s back and legs straightened out like he wasn’t expecting that kind of burst. UNBELIEVABLE!! You have to see it to believe it at
http://www.horseplayerinteractive.com/racing/videoreplays
If you have a HPI account you can view the race at Saratoga (Sep. 3, race 5).

Posted by F.K. on April 2, 2008 @ 6:01 pm

I appreciate your excitement over a horse, F.K. Rather than bet through the future wager this weekend, I’d welcome your money.
You even have the benefit of knowing the final odds. If you like the price Big Brown is when action closes Sunday night, then send me an e-mail within an hour with the amount you’re betting. I will respond with my address, and as long as a check is in the mail the next day (postmarked April 7) then you have action.
If Big Brown wins the Kentucky Derby then I pay you. If he doesn’t run or loses then I keep your money.

Posted by EJXD2 on April 3, 2008 @ 9:18 am

EJXD2: I don’t want your money — you can’t afford my action anyway … talk to me after the race and send an apology. You obviously haven’t taken the time to think this through or even watch the replays. The horse IS a freak, but even then I know that that does NOT guarantee a Kentucky Derby victory. However, I’m not stupid enough to bet against it. My proposition is I’ll take your action on whichever other horse YOU want to bet. Dutrow and I know that there is not a 3 YO on the planet that can beat this horse and you will know that too in 4 1/2 weeks.

Posted by F.K. on April 3, 2008 @ 2:38 pm

That’s fine if you don’t want my money, but I DO want your money.
My point isn’t that Big Brown isn’t good enough to win–he is. My point is that he will be an underlay at the price.
Betting Big Brown this weekend is akin to taking 4-to-5 on a coin flip. You’ll be right 50% of the time, but you’ll go broke in the long run.

Posted by EJXD2 on April 3, 2008 @ 3:53 pm

WRT Curlin. I’m more inclined to think his third place Derby finish can be attributed to post position rather than inexperience. He covered a lot distance in order to hit the board. The colt was vindicated two weeks later in Baltimore.
I’ll show an inexperienced horse some love on Derby Day but not if he comes out of the two-hole.

Posted by Jeff on April 6, 2008 @ 10:45 am

I would show an inexperienced horse some love too (and I did in 2006 when I played Showing Up pretty liberally underneath Barbaro and Cause to Believe in exotics), but SU was a longshot, and BB is the likely favorite. I just can’t get excited about his price.

Posted by EJXD2 on April 7, 2008 @ 10:07 am