The Longer the Meet Goes
… the more the adjusted average daily win mutuel drops at Keeneland this spring:
Sounds like trainer Dale Romans is on to something with his comment, “I’m not so sure [betting on Keeneland] would be a problem if it were longer than a two-week meet, so they can get a gauge on who’s running well” (Herald-Leader).
Over on Left at the Gate, Alan makes the point that the problem of fewer winning favorites at Keeneland could also be due to the meet being so competitive. Makes sense. Consider the stats: Through Wednesday, favorites won 28/132 races (21%) and finished in the money in 77/132 races (58%). If you break the races down into Polytrack and turf, the split is 24/106 win (23%), 60/106 ITM (57%) on poly and 4/26 win (15%), 18/26 ITM (69%) on turf. The turf fields are certainly competitive, and it looks like the synthetic fields are as well. With a little more time and a little less Poly-hysteria, the numbers might come into line with what handicappers expect at endless meets like Aqueduct.
