JC / Railbird

Big Brown Madness

Derby week begins and all perspective is lost. In Florida still, trainer Rick Dutrow is full of bravado:

“Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race,” Dutrow said in a typical recent interview. “I’m training this horse for a horse race; I don’t care what the name of it is. I feel he’s the best horse in the race — I feel he’s going to win the race. Anything else is going to be extremely disappointing to me.”

And he’s not alone is his feelings about Big Brown’s Derby chances. Bill Finley agrees:

Big Brown is clearly the fastest, most talented horse among the 30 or so 3-year-olds vying for a spot in the Kentucky Derby field and he’s coming off one of the most electrifying Derby preps ever run…. Situations like this rarely present themselves: an underlayed Big Brown is absolutely the pick to win the Derby.

As does John at Not to Swift, who’s feeling 1981 all over again: “Dutrow and Big Brown are déjà vu.”
In typical fashion, my contrarian streak is kicking in as the bandwagon grows crowded. I’m off Big Brown, with his inexperience and single two-turn prep, no matter how thrilling and fast, and onto a new horse — Gayego, who worked well at Churchill this morning, going five furlongs in 1:01 (fifth of 20 at the distance) over the muddy track.


1 Comment

It’s hard to disagree with BB as the favorite, but also being contrarian, I just can’t back this horse.
If Curlin couldn’t get it done, how’s BB going to? Watched a replay of last years KD and Curlin was NO THREAT at any point. In BB’s favor, however, there probably are not the same level of talent in the 3YO pool as there was last year.
I think it’s only a matter of time before a horse with a light past performance profile like Curlin or BB win the derby, probably not too much longer at that.
In this case we have a horse with known foot issues, entering a classic completely untested. I’ll be more than happy to take my chances against not just because history says NO WAY, but because there is no question that BB will be tested (first time!) next Saturday and only very, very elite horses who come around once in lifetime could overcome that. I just don’t see BB as a ‘once in a lifetime’ horse.

Posted by o_crunk on April 26, 2008 @ 12:43 pm