Getting the Trip
In 133 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner has been in the lead or within a half-length of the lead at the stretch call of the race in 116 of those races (7/8!). More recently, only Giacomo in the past six years has not gotten that trip. Even Street Sense, with his big move up the rail from 19th, was already in the lead by the stretch call of the race.
Other recent aberrations to this rule are Monarchos and Charismatic. Given that Charismatic and Giacomo were gigantic bombs and the Monarchos win came in the year of the record fractions, it seems as if the race really needs to completely fall apart for a horse to come closing at the very end of the race to win.
I’m willing to downgrade a horse like Court Vision’s chances to win based on the above, as I don’t think there will be a complete meltdown of the first two tiers of horses this year. Notice I didn’t say “of the pace.” In Barbaro’s year, Keyed Entry, Sharp Humor, and Sinister Minister all faded badly, but that second tier of horses—Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat, and Showing Up—ran well. I could see horses with that running style doing well this year.
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