JC / Railbird

Getting the Trip

In 133 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner has been in the lead or within a half-length of the lead at the stretch call of the race in 116 of those races (7/8!). More recently, only Giacomo in the past six years has not gotten that trip. Even Street Sense, with his big move up the rail from 19th, was already in the lead by the stretch call of the race.
Other recent aberrations to this rule are Monarchos and Charismatic. Given that Charismatic and Giacomo were gigantic bombs and the Monarchos win came in the year of the record fractions, it seems as if the race really needs to completely fall apart for a horse to come closing at the very end of the race to win.
I’m willing to downgrade a horse like Court Vision’s chances to win based on the above, as I don’t think there will be a complete meltdown of the first two tiers of horses this year. Notice I didn’t say “of the pace.” In Barbaro’s year, Keyed Entry, Sharp Humor, and Sinister Minister all faded badly, but that second tier of horses—Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat, and Showing Up—ran well. I could see horses with that running style doing well this year.


4 Comments

Ah, Jessica is looking for the famed, elusive, Derby Middle Move! Find the horse who makes a big run between the half mile pole (after 6 furlongs have been run) and the quarter pole (after 8 furlongs have been run) and you’ve likely found the winner. The problem is always determining who that horse is likely to be. But it’ll be fun trying to figure it out – it always is.

Posted by Chris Garrity on April 29, 2008 @ 8:51 am

Hey, Chris, it’s true I am looking for that horse, and so is Ed, the author of this post. As for Court Vision, I agree he’s unlikely to win but do think he’s a solid contender to finish third or fourth, so if I play any tris or supers, he’ll be in the mix.

Posted by Jessica on April 29, 2008 @ 8:59 am

Several jockeys and trainers have said that the race is won “at the kitchen” that mythical line where the backstretch turns into the far turn about at the same area the track kitchen is.
Churchill has a long stretch, but uncorking your run at the top of it usually doesn’t get you home in time.
The more I study, the more I like Gayego.

Posted by EJXD2 on April 29, 2008 @ 9:35 am

I’m looking for a way to beat Big Brown. I want to like Gayego but I’m not sure he can go the distance. I think he’ll hit the board, but I doubt he wears the roses.

Posted by Jeff on April 29, 2008 @ 11:19 am