Graphing the Contenders
Following up on my earlier study on the BSF patterns of past Kentucky Derby fields, I graphed the prep race BSF patterns of the top 20 Derby contenders this year:
Click to enlarge.
A caveat: Beyer speed figures are merely tools and not necessarily comparable across surfaces, and figures earned solely on turf and synthetics (such as those for Colonel John and Cowboy Cal) indicate little how those horses will perform on dirt. Still, I find the visual representation useful — it makes clear that Gayego is a real contender, that Tale of Ekati may be improving but is too slow, and suggests that both consistent Eight Belles and Cowboy Cal have more of a chance than their odds might accord.
Over on Thoroughbred Champions, Kennedy posts more in-depth work on the figures, describing six distinct patterns for Derby contenders.
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