JC / Railbird

Better than Big Red

At least, on the Sheets, reports John Scheinman:

When Ragozin’s company calculated the performance by Big Brown on May 3 in the Kentucky Derby, it made a startling discovery: the 3-year-old colt had recorded a -3/4 , the lowest number in the modern history of the race.
“This is by a quarter of a point better than any other,” said Len Friedman, 66, a hardcore Sheets player from Brooklyn and head handicapper at Ragozin’s company. “Secretariat ran a 1/2 .”

I would like to believe that Big Brown is a once-in-a-lifetime horse and cheer him on to a Triple Crown, but what holds me back isn’t just a snobbish distaste for his connections, it’s the unresolvable question both Patrick, in his post “Big Brown Bonds,” and Jeremy Plonk, in his column “Derby Drugs,” have written about recently — how much of the immense talent displayed so far by Big Brown is natural and how much is assisted? The horse is blameless, but there’s an asterisk next to his name regardless.


10 Comments

I’m going to be cautiously optimistic on this one and say this horse displayed some serious talent before he even got to Dutrow’s barn.
I remember seeing that romp at Saratoga in his debut over labor day weekend, ridiculous speed bias or not, I thought it was the most impressive grass win at the meet at that time.
I tabbed the horse and then forgot about it when he didn’t show up anywhere else.
I don’t know the first thing about the sheets, but I didn’t think much of the up front pace in the Derby. It may have been honest, but not honest in the context of recent Derby history. I haven’t studied that, but was just an observation I had watching the race live. 47 and 11 and change? On that souped up track? The same track that had sprinters rolling in 43 and change earlier? Could be wrong on that, but this surely didn’t compromise BB’s pace scenario.
Throw a Spanish Chestnut and a Keyed Entry in there and let me see what happens entering the first turn. Then have a Barbaro stalk him or a Street Sense run him down on the rail. (All of these couldn’t even sniff Big Red). Bunch of imposters he ran against….and we all knew it going in. There wasn’t one other horse in the race where the knocks weren’t tough to take.
So, yeah maybe because of all that BB ran a better race than Big Red, but then again, he had it his own way against nothing much. (very easy to say this in retrospect, BTW ;-))

Posted by o_crunk on May 13, 2008 @ 3:25 pm

I say ‘Oh please! – twice!
Oh please to the notion that Big Brown is better than Big Red, at least based on the sheets. The sheets are a subjective opinion of how fast a horse ran. Let him win the Belmont by 31 lengths, Casino Drive or no Casino Drive, and then we’ll talk.
And oh please to the notion that BB’s Derby win was assisted by drugs. I’m no happier about seeing Dutrow win the Derby and take on the lovable scamp persona as anyone. But I cannot believe that anyone – even Dutrow – would possibly be stupid enough to be messing with this horse in that way, unless he’s a chemical genius. And I don’t think he’s a genius in any respect. And remember, he won two races in Dubai where they would have thrown him out for giving his horse a Tums.
And by the way, take a look at the lowlifes that our pop culture is fixated upon these days. Rick Dutrow might be just what this game needs.

Posted by alan on May 13, 2008 @ 3:54 pm

Agree with you completely – even if it’s nothing illegal, the Lasix, bute, etc. puts me off (even though I know just about everyone else is on them too). Interesting about the Sheets number, I had not seen that stat yet.

Posted by Superfecta on May 13, 2008 @ 3:55 pm

Such blasphemy! Better than Big Red – not in my world! But what can I say, look at my screen name, lol!
I have to agree with Alan. Secretariat and Sham both set track records in the Derby which Big Brown didn’t come anywhere near. But if he could win the Belmont by more than 31 lengths and beat the time of 2:24 then I might and I say might be willing to consider that he was better.

Posted by Katie aka TripCrown73 on May 13, 2008 @ 4:10 pm

A trainer doesn’t need to be a chemical wiz. Simply employment of a dirty vet who works for dirty trainers and owners is easy and predominant. The question of whether a souped up steroid freak like Big Brown or Curlin should be lauded is laughable. I fervently hope for reform.

Posted by gorevidalfan on May 13, 2008 @ 5:23 pm

Everyone needs to take a chill pill on the “better than big red” crap. The ragozin figure simply says that big brown ran a “faster” derby than secretariat. It has nothing to do with the Belmont or their lifetime achievements.
Considering ground loss and the wind, Big Brown’s win was super impressive

Posted by EJXD2 on May 13, 2008 @ 8:21 pm

Better than Secretariat?? Not in this or any other lifetime!
A less than spectacular time in the Derby does not a legend make.

Posted by LindaVA on May 13, 2008 @ 9:23 pm

Guess I did my job writing that story! Look at all this conversation …
I don’t think anybody said Big Brown was better than Secretariat, only that he ran a lower Ragozin number in the Derby. Re-read the Carulli quotes in the story — “four wide both turns” — to understand how the number dips down. Say he had his own way against a weak field if you like, but not a single comment here mentions he came out of the FREAKING 20 hole and won on only three starts! As for drugs, if Big Brown is given Winstrol, well, that’s because it is still legal. Don’t grumble about Dutrow in that instance, grumble about a racing authority that needs to clamp down. A lot of people seem to want to see Big Brown beaten because of his connections. I would only want him beaten if I’ve bet against him. Guys with drug pasts have great horses, but until these animals test positive, we shouldn’t let our bias and frustration allow us to forget to recognize greatness. I think possibly Big Brown, and much more so at this point Curlin, are what great horses in these times look like.

Posted by John S. on May 14, 2008 @ 10:11 am

John S. – Nice job tracking down Stronach in Moscow for your story on Dragone today. Great quote too. “He was a nice fella..” ha ha.

Posted by alan on May 14, 2008 @ 11:19 am

Doesn’t really matter if Big Brown is “better” than Secretariat, or that his trainer has had a past history of heavy drug involvement.
Big brown is the horse hero of this generation just as Secretariat was the hero of mine, and Man O’ War the hero of the folks who came me.
Each generation gets the hero it deserves, according to it’s standards.

Posted by tvnewsbadge on May 19, 2008 @ 11:07 am