Medication positives and (negative) EPO tests, nothingness and debates over the definition of blogging — reading the latest DRF+ column by James Quinn is a tonic, because it’s about handicapping — specifically, about pairs of figures as predictors of form. Remember handicapping? It’s what we used to do, before the Triple Crown season imploded.
Thanks for sharing this thought but I can’t access the link in the posting because the content is accessible only to DRF Plus users. Can you give a synopsis? Thanks.
Posted by Rob on July 1, 2008 @ 6:40 pm
Sure! Basically Quinn asks, after a horse has earned the same speed figure (+/- 2) twice in row, essentially delivering the same performance twice, “What should happen next?” In cheap 3-year-old claiming races, you should expect to see a decline in form — the horse won’t deliver the same performance a third time. Among better horses — such as Big Brown in his next start and the start after that — the expectation should be that they move forward. He also makes a distinction that I had not before, that 3-year-old allowance dropdowns are best taken early in the year (before June) and less reliable in the second half of the year.
Posted by Jessica on July 2, 2008 @ 10:39 am
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