Keeneland Down 45.6%
Sales director Geoffrey Russell, asked how long the slump might last, replied:
“I don’t know because I am not an economist. I would like to see this turn around as quickly as possible. Definitely in time for [the Keeneland] January sale [Jan. 12-17, 2009],” he said half-jokingly, knowing that is unlikely to happen.
Keeneland’s sales over the last 16 years show that as an asset class, thoroughbreds are high-strung and a bit jumpy. When the world’s economy catches a sniffle, the horseflesh market starts wheezing…. When the economy slowed in the early 1990s, Keeneland’s sales fell three straight years, slumping 40 percent from $372 million in 1989 to $225 million in 1992.
Oh. Sounds like the just concluded Keeneland November sale augurs a rough year or three ahead.
Valuing Curlin
From a November 3, 2007 Courier-Journal article by Greg Hall assessing Curlin’s potential value:
“If I had to guess, an educated guess, I would think somewhere between $60 and $70 million,” [Rick Porter, owner of Hard Spun] said. “All I know is what some of his competitors sold for, and he sort of towered over all of them when it was all said and done.”
Louisville native Jack Wolf, a partner who sold 2004 Kentucky Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Ashado for $9 million at auction, said he guessed Curlin could be worth $45 million.
Ric Waldman, an adviser to Overbrook Farm where Storm Cat stands, declined to give a figure, saying he had done some work for Jackson.
But “it would be extremely large numbers when you take into account that there is a racing future for the horse,” he said.
The same Ric Waldman, hired as an expert witness by the court-appointed receiver overseeing the 20% interest in Curlin not owned by Jess Jackson, testified in court today that,
he initially valued the horse in August at $30 million [for the receiver or another party?], but because of thoroughbred market downturns and the economy, he reduced that to $20 million.
Quite a difference a year makes. Jackson “agreed with Waldman’s assessment by bidding $4 million” for the remaining interest in the reigning Horse of the Year. Sounds like a bargain, especially for a stallion who is expected to stand for $75,000 to start.
Update: Matt Hegarty has more on the cross-examination of Waldman, in which he stuck to his figures, but did question the possible $75K stud fee given current market conditions.
Unlikely Sight
Trainer Steve Asmussen on whether Curlin might start once more in 2008 before heading to stud next year:
“Without stepping on my own tongue, I don’t see anything worthy of him,” Asmussen said by phone yesterday.
BC Meeting Recaps
… from Dana at Green but Game and Michael at Gathering the Wind.
I’m still mulling over the two-hour conversation Thursday with Rotondo and Land; the meeting was a useful exercise, the start of a dialogue, even if we didn’t sell the Breeders’ Cup on any fan-driven changes (yet).
Music Lesson
“The lesson from Napster and iTunes is that there’s even MORE music than there was before,” marketing guru Seth Godin says in a recent interview. Pull the Pocket translates for racing:
The lesson from ADW and the Internet is that there’s even MORE opportunities to see racing than there was before.
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Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
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