JC / Railbird

Notes for 2009-04-13

– Few changes to the top 10 this week, with all adjustments in the second tier. Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem, who’s been bumping around the lower third since February, moves to #6, replacing runner-up Old Fashioned, now off the Derby trail and likely done with racing due to a slab fracture of the knee. General Quarters appears at #8 following his win in the Blue Grass, making him the second to come out of the Tampa Bay Derby and take a stakes. I had trouble coming up with a tenth prospect, narrowing the possibles down to Chocolate Candy, Musket Man, and West Side Bernie, all on the cusp. Although Twitterverse sentiment was 4-to-1 for ‘Candy, I settled on Musket Man, who followed up on his Tampa win with another in last week’s Illinois Derby.

Top 10 for 4/14/09 PDI: 1. I Want Revenge 2. Quality Road 3. Pioneerof the Nile 4. Desert Party 5. Friesan Fire 6. Papa Clem 7. Dunkirk 8. General Quarters 9. Regal Ransom 10. Musket Man

– Chocolate Candy worked yesterday morning with new rider Mike Smith up, going five furlongs handily in :59.20 at Santa Anita. “I was happy with the work, said trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Of course he was. Trainers are almost never quoted as anything but thrilled with their charges, especially three weeks before the biggest 3-year-old race of the year. The colt does look pretty good in this video of his Sunday move, though.

Dunkirk and Quality Road also worked over the weekend, with Dunkirk breezing four furlongs in :49.06 at Palm Meadows, and Quality Road doing the same in :48 at Belmont Park. He then galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.85 (according to DRF; Belmont clockers credited Quality’ with a five furlong breeze in 1:02.19). NYRA posted a short video of the work, showing the Jimmy Jerkens-trained colt going fine, apparently untroubled by the quarter crack found earlier in the week.

On the distaff side, watch mail brought notice that Music Note, third in her final 2008 start, the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Classic, is back in training. The 4-year-old filly breezed three furlongs in :37.40 at Keeneland on Saturday. No news yet on where she might debut this year. Possibly Belmont, in a race such as the June 13 G1 Ogden Phipps Handicap?

– It might be too early to start speculating on possible Derby pace scenarios, but with Old Fashioned and The Pamplemousse out, who goes to the front? There’s not a lot of early speed among the remaining probables.

– BSFs: 99 101 (upgraded) for Papa Clem, 95 for General Quarters.


3 Comments

Totally agree with your addition of Musket Man to the top 10. While I don’t believe he can win, I just have this “feeling” that he is an example of that rare horse that outruns his pedigree, and will be among the top four or five.

Also glad to see Papa Clem live up to our confidence in him :) However, I’m a little concerned about Quality Road’s quarter crack…

Posted by Valerie on April 13, 2009 @ 10:53 pm

Regal Ransom G2W

Posted by EJXD2 on April 14, 2009 @ 7:20 am

What amazes me is the consistency of the horses that come out of Tampa Bay Downs. This batch didn’t look very powerful down there but damn if they haven’t made their presence felt, whether one of them win the Derby or not. This was not supposed to be a year in which the TB horses contended, but here they are. The DIRT track has a reputation for being deep and getting horses into shape. Do TB horses get a bounce similar to that of top horses coming out of Santa Anita and running on dirt for the first time?

* 1. Friesan Fire
* 2. Pioneerof the Nile
* 3. Dunkirk
* 4. I Want Revenge
* 5. Quality Road
* 6. Papa Clem
* 7. Hold Me Back
* 8. General Quarters
* 9. Mr. Hot Stuff
* 10. Chocolate Candy
* 11. Regal Ransom
* 12. Terrain
* 13. West Side Bernie
* 14. Musket Man
* 15. Desert Party

P.S. — Terrain is out and heading to the Lone Star Derby

Posted by John S. on April 15, 2009 @ 11:21 am