Almost There
I’m resolved to avoid over-handicapping the Derby this year (unlike every other year), so it was in a blithe spirit that I composed my final top 10 list, rearranged after Quality Road defected to reflect the horses I consider to have some combination of prepping and talent satisfactory enough to, if not win the roses, then finish in the money. No real surprises; both Desert Party and Regal Ransom move up on the strength of how they’re training at Churchill, Friesan Fire drops a spot due to the layoff. Doubts have crept in already about a couple on the list, though, and I do wonder about who I’ve overlooked, so a re-shuffling of top picks is certain after post positions are drawn Wednesday at noon, followed by a thorough study of the past performances.
Top 10 for 4/27/09 PDI: 1. Pioneerof the Nile 2. Desert Party 3. Regal Ransom 4. I Want Revenge 5. Friesan Fire 6. Papa Clem 7. Dunkirk 8. Musket Man 9. General Quarters 10. Chocolate Candy (really, a tie with West Side Bernie)
The major workouts wrapped up Tuesday, with I Want Revenge breezing four furlongs in :47.20 at Churchill. Said Steve Haskin of the work:
He immediately broke off into his long, flowing stride, cornered beautifully, and cruised down the stretch with Talamo never moving his hands. Despite the ease of the work, he still came home his final eighth in :11 4/5, and again cut the corner sharply galloping out.
The colt is the picture of health and appears, like a number of contenders, to be coming up to the Derby in excellent shape.
Gary West, watching the same horse, had a more prosaic reaction: “It was a good work, no doubt about that, but it wasn’t the kind of move that grabs you by the lapels and says, ‘I’m going to win.'” Which matches up pretty well with Mike Welsch’s assessment: “Nothing, perhaps, that would separate him from the other top contenders in the Derby field, but solid enough to keep him at or near the top of that list.” Nice, then, nothing special, and a reminder to watch the training videos Churchill posts and not get too hung up on any one opinion while handicapping a race like the Derby.
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