JC / Railbird

Notes for 2009-05-05

Sports Illustrated cover for May 5, 2009– For the first time in five years, a horse has made the cover of Sports Illustrated. (That’s the power of an upset in America’s best known race and a fantastic, scrappy backstory.) “Miracle in the Mud: Derby Long-Shot Winner Energizes Horse Racing,” asserts the headline accompanying the photo of Mine That Bird and Calvin Borel after the wire. Even with a few days to think about it, I’m still not sure what to make of the freakish Kentucky Derby results. I believe this, though: There are no miracles, and there are no fairy tales; there is only missing information. Something essential about Saturday remains unknown. I’m waiting for the Preakness, as Superfecta advises, before coming to any conclusions about Mine That Bird, this year’s 3-year-old Classic contenders, or what the Derby means for racing. Maybe after the second leg of the Triple Crown, I’ll feel energized. For now, I remain slightly stunned and disoriented.

– All the mentions of Canonero II in the wake of Mine That Bird’s big upset in the Kentucky Derby reminded me of a post from last year, when the mysterious Venezuelan Derby winner’s name came up often in relation to then unknown Peruvian Derby contender Tomcito. Here’s an excerpt from that old post, with the still-relevant links to articles on Canonero II in the SI Vault:

The two are terrific racing stories: Both Kentucky-breds, each was purchased for a modest price at a Keeneland sale and shipped to South America, where both became winners. Canonero, however, arrived in the United States two weeks before the Kentucky Derby, losing four days training time in quarantine, and little was known of his record when he went to post at Churchill. His 3 3/4-length Derby upset was considered a fluke, a notion dispelled when he won the Preakness in record time. Canonero then headed to New York to try for the Triple Crown, where he stunned fans by finishing fourth in the Belmont as the 3-5 favorite.

Dan Illman has much more on the 1971 Derby winner, including video links.

– For conspiracy buffs, a theory.

– For Borel fans, proof of form.

– New debut date for Zenyatta: After scratching last Friday from the Louisville Distaff due to rain, trainer John Shirreffs has set the May 23 Milady Handicap at Hollywood as the race for the mighty mare’s return.


8 Comments

Something essential about Saturday remains unknown? Really? What’s more believable than seeing the horse win the race?

I know it’s the big one but no one really bats an eye when a Frost Giant shocks the Suburban or even Da’ Tara takes down a classic (all big races, all within the last year).

There are those who still step up to the plate to defend last year’s lackluster 3YO group, usually by pointing to evidence in their now 4YO old form.

The bottom line is if anyone except Papa Clem, Friesan Fire, Dunkirk or Pioneerof The Nile win on Saturday, we’re probably having the same conversation about this year’s group….like “what does it mean?” or “how did that happen?”.

That’s the game. Either turn the page or look for some mystery explaining something that might not have anything to do with anything.

Still no one knows what happened to BB on Belmont Day last year.

Our imaginations are usually as reliable as any reasonable answers you might be given.

Posted by o_crunk on May 5, 2009 @ 8:12 pm

Frost Giant and Da’Tara didn’t upend everything known about conventional handicapping. Great that you have it all figured out. It still seems a mystery to me.

Posted by Jessica on May 5, 2009 @ 8:51 pm

I haven’t figured anything out.

I didn’t mean to take a poop on your post. If that’s the way it read, it was not my intention.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that sometimes results *are* unexplainable. If it’s the 9th @MNR or the Derby…what’s the difference. Conventional handicapping is upended on a daily basis. If it happens to be when the most eyes are watching, does that make it anymore significant?

Posted by o_crunk on May 6, 2009 @ 2:21 am

I’m reading the Da’Tara comparison for the third time now and I find it absolutely unfitting.

Da’Tara just so happened to finish first in a race that without BB and Casino Drive simply was ridiculously weak for its Triple Crown status. Look back at last year’s Belmont today and you’ll find that, with some exception for the over-hyped Denis of Cork, some bad horse had to win eventually because there was no quality left in the race once BB faltered.

This Derby however featured about a dozen horses for which some case could be made. Sure you can excuse or strike some of them, but MTB nevertheless went clear in a pretty good horse race. As surprising as his progress looks, it would be even harder to explain him away as a fluke should he not follow up on this form.

Posted by Malcer on May 6, 2009 @ 5:49 am

No, I’m still a little cranky. You make a fair point. But there is a difference: Moving up the class ladder, races tend to become more formful, or at least, results map to some understandable outcome. It might be, as in the case of Da’Tara, a longshot outcome, but it’s not total chaos.

Posted by Jessica on May 6, 2009 @ 9:06 am

I love that this outcome can’t be mapped to some plausible explanation! Sometimes I enjoy a reminder that life is unpredictable.

And what if the unpredictable is really MTB coming into his own and finding a rider that suits him at same time? We’ll have to wait and see but I think that seems like a great potential plausible explanation.

Posted by dana on May 6, 2009 @ 9:36 am

I’m with Jessica. I’m cranky. This victory is not like Da Tara (and I made a pile on that Frost Giant race). This horse had a decent 2-year-old season, but those races in New Mexico appeared pedestrian. I think the Paul Moran post is quite fitting and likely accurate, moreso than that whack speculation on Raceday360.com, anyway. We got scammed, and it serves us right. After all, Pletcher’s horse came out of the Sunland Derby and won the Lexington; that should have said something about the race right there. Also, Mine That Bird should have been higher than 50-1 and was not. We probably could have looked at the internal exotics prior to the race when they were flashed and seen he was taking some money in there, too. Part 3, he looked good on the track. I know that Frank Carulli at Pimlico is going to slot him in at 6-1 or even 8-1 in the morning line. I’m all over that.

Posted by John S. on May 6, 2009 @ 12:08 pm

O’ Crunk wrote:

Still no one knows what happened to BB on Belmont Day last year.

___________________________________

It was well established that Big Brown was stepped on
when he crashed into the maiden and subsequently running
the race with a loose shoe.

We had pictures all over the web.
That should be sufficient proof of why Mr. Desormeaux had “no horse”.

If I backed out of my driveway with a sheetrock nail in my tire, I’m not going to get very far. Am I ?

Posted by The_Knight_Sky on May 6, 2009 @ 12:55 pm