No Allowances
Is the stakes race the new allowance race for juvenile males?
There’s been a trend toward running 2-year-old maiden winners in stakes without a stop at the allowance level, but it seems especially pronounced this year. Consider: Of the 103 starters in the 16 open juvenile graded stakes run to date, 62 were coming off a maiden start, 48 of those maiden wins. Only four of the 103 had a start in an allowance race prior to their first start in a stakes, graded or ungraded. The number rises to six if counting Stormy Rush’s allowance start before the G3 Summer Stakes, not included below, or Conservative Value’s allowance start before the ungraded Cradle Stakes.
(Stakes races are organized by grade, then date. Horses are displayed in order of finish, from 1-2-3-X. View the full spreadsheet here.)
A few notes: Several horses in the Hollywood Juvenile, including winner JP’s Gusto, previously started in the ungraded Proctor Memorial Stakes at Hollywood. Those juveniles, as well as the Lost in the Fog Stakes and Par Four Stakes starters included above, were all entered off maiden races. Boys at Tosconova started his career in stakes, before winning a Saratoga maiden special, and then the G1 Hopeful. Things didn’t turn out so well for Manchurian High, who made his first two starts in stakes before entering a Belmont maiden, in which he finished ninth. Two of the juvenile starters above, Sensational Slam and Road Ready, have only run (and not well) in stakes.
I’m interested in any theories as to why the allowance start is disappearing among this set (or arguments that it isn’t), and opinions on the increasingly common move of going from maiden to graded stakes without a win …
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