So-So Prospects
A couple of years ago, I was listening to one of the Road to the Roses teleconferences hosted by the NTRA each spring. Trainer Todd Pletcher was taking questions. In February, a well-bred 3-year-old from his barn had won a grass race impressively at Gulfstream, briefly sparking Kentucky Derby talk. A reporter asked about the colt. Pletcher replied, “Who?”
It was funny, but as I listened to the trainer smoothly make up for his startled first response, I realized he had said everything about how he perceived the colt’s potential, and it wasn’t anything to look forward to on the Derby Trail.
I was reminded of that call yesterday after Brethren won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs by four lengths as the 4-5 favorite. The final time was 1:45.07, for which Brethren was given a Beyer speed figure of 83. DRF Formulator gives his fractions as a steady :24+ per split. His final sixteenth was :6.87, and the way he drew off in the stretch was visually impressive.
For Pletcher, it was his fourth Davis win in five years, a Tampa record, but the trainer wasn’t in the winner’s circle. He watched the race from Gulftream, where he had two horses entered on Saturday afternoon, both in claiming races. “Obviously we have some things to work on at the gate but all in all I thought it was a great effort,” Pletcher told Mike Welsch.
A great effort isn’t Who?, and the trainer may not have been at Tampa for several reasons. Yet I’m getting a sense that, as a Kentucky Derby prospect, Brethren isn’t one to get too excited* about this season.
Mike Watchmaker has a less subjective reason to question Brethren’s Derby potential: “Brethren’s profoundly pedestrian preliminary Beyer of 83 in the Davis didn’t even match the pair of 84’s he earned last year.” The handicapper wasn’t any more impressed with the other two preps on Saturday, and Brad Free reports pessimism at Santa Anita after Tapizar’s dismal run.
Beyer speed figures of 93 and 90 for Silver Medallion in the El Camino Real at Golden Gate and Anthony’s Cross in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. Charts and replays via the updated Kentucky Derby prep schedule.
First-round Triple Crown nominations are out. Search the 364 nominees.
*The one everyone is excited about worked this morning. Uncle Mo breezed four furlongs in :47.45 in company with Stay Thirsty at Palm Meadows. “It was a tad quicker than we expected. We wanted him to go in :48 and change, but he did it effortlessly,” said Pletcher of the move.
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