JC / Railbird - Updated for 2011

Updated for 2011

… the prep and historical criteria Kentucky Derby spreadsheet.

Those considering betting Dialed In, the 4-1 morning line favorite, might want to take note that he and Decisive Moment are the the only two Derby starters who have not earned their best Beyer speed figures at a distance of 1 1/16 miles or longer (putting aside Master of Hounds, who has one US start and speed figure in his seven-race career). Going back to 1998, no horse has won the Derby without a best BSF at that distance or longer, and only three of 27 starters who didn’t have a best BSF at 1 1/16+ even finished in the money (a number that includes the filly Eight Belles).

Posted by JC in Racing on 05/05/2011 @ 4:54 pm / Tagged Derby Handicapping, Derby Prospects, Historical Criteria, Kentucky Derby, Spreadsheets / Follow @railbird on Twitter

1 Comment

Unbelievable information. I always try to look at the way traditions come in to play for gambling, but this is put so straight forward and concise. Very good job with this and thank you. I do have a question. These rules obviously are very important. Is there a way to add on to this and see what other rules apply? For instance, horses that haven’t raced in 28 days, or coming home in 25.3 less for the last 1/4 of a mile. It honestly seems like you have everything else, I would be extremely curious to see how this applied to the win, place, show horses in the last 12-15 years.

By the way, it was fascinating to see that only 3 horses that didn’t run at age 3 even hit the board, let alone win. 4 races seems to be too few, unless you are Big Brown.

Posted by billy on May 5, 2011 @ 8:57 pm

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