Derby Day 2015
10:15 AM Update: #12 International Star has scratched. Here’s the statement from owner Ken Ramsey, via the Churchill Downs press office:
“The state vet got there this morning to check him out and did not like the way he jogged down the shedrow. Our blacksmith took the left-front shoe off and there was definitely some heat on the inside quarter of the left-front foot. Something’s brewing in there, probably an abscess. There’s nothing major wrong with the horse whatsoever. We think we’ll probably have him ready to come back for the Preakness but time will tell.”
Fans of three-time rail-riding Kentucky Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel got bad news on Friday: It was announced that El Kabeir would scratch from today’s race with a foot abscess. El Kabeir was in post 7; the horses before him will shuffle in from the rail, leaving post 1 open for the third year in a row. (Not that the move improves Ocho Ocho Ocho’s chances, at least from this corner’s view. He’s one of my tosses, along with Materiality, Itsaknockout, Keen Ice, Frammento, Bolo, War Story, and Firing Line.)
Okay, so how to play today? What do you do with likely post-time favorite, American Pharoah? He’s 5-2 on the live Kentucky Derby odds board as of 9:15 AM. Both Nick Tammaro and Steve Haskin have value tips. Says Tammaro:
In wagering on this particular Kentucky Derby, the approach of betting against American Pharoah in the intra-race exotics is advisable. Protecting with him in multi-race exotics is feasible, and profit can be maximized by him missing the top slot in trifecta and superfecta wagers.
Haskin suggests another approach:
[I]f you’re looking for good exacta with American Pharoah, I’ll go with Frosted, Firing Line, Bolo, and Danzig Moon, and if you want to be really daring, you can box the last four just in case.
Picks for the Kentucky Derby and undercard stakes are up on Hello Race Fans. Past performances for the Derby are available via the HRF cheat sheet.
