JC / Railbird

Trivia

Noticed while skimming the Derby PPs, updating the historical criteria chart

– Since 2002, every Derby winner has worked a bullet in their penultimate or final workout; since 1998, eight of 11 winners have done so. (Kennedy, helpfully, has real stats on this.) This year, six starters have bullet works: Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, I Want Revenge, Atomic Rain, Dunkirk, and Summer Bird. The last time Friesan Fire worked a bullet was before winning the Louisiana Derby; Dunkirk has worked three straight bullets since the Florida Derby. The anti-bullet? Pioneerof the Nile: In his four works at Santa Anita listed on the pps, every one was the fastest or second-fastest at the distance. His two works at Churchill were fourth and eleventh, both at five furlongs.

– The game of musical jockeys continued through Tuesday, ending with 10 rider changes — seven of those new pairings: Chocolate Candy (Mike Smith), Desert Party (Ramon Dominguez), General Quarters (Julien Leparoux), Mine That Bird (Calvin Borel), Mr. Hot Stuff (John Velazquez), Nowhere to Hide (Shaun Bridgmohan), Flying Private (Robby Albarado). That’s the most since 2003, when six horses, all longshots, went to the post with new riders. Between 2003-2008, 22 horses, none at final odds of less than 10-1, started with new riders on Derby day. Of those, none won, and only two — Bluegrass Cat, second in 2006, and Imperialism, third in 2004 — finished in the money.


2 Comments

I was hoping Chantal Sutherland would get the ride on Mine That Bird. She was aboard for the wins at Woodbine, why not give her a chance at a Derby?

If the weather goes stormy on Saturday the tote board might blow up. This field is very difficult to handicap.

Posted by Keith - Triple Dead Heat on April 30, 2009 @ 2:09 pm

Well if we eliminate Pioneer of the Nile
then the Big Four becomes the Big Three.

I prefer Dunkirk and respect Friesan Fire.
I’m not sold on I Want Revenge I think he can easily regress or win for fun.

All I want is for some longshots or two to sneak into the place and show spots for the trifecta. I do not think
the Big Four will run 1-2-3-4 or even 1-2-3. But that’s how the I believe the fans will play it and that’s got me excited. Hope you are too.

Posted by The_Knight_Sky on April 30, 2009 @ 9:52 pm