Watching Yet Another …
Favorite win at Suffolk on Saturday had me wondering: Do favorites win more races at the East Boston track than the oft-cited 30% average? It wasn’t the first afternoon I thought I perceived a high percentage of favored horses win. A quick check of last week’s results does show an above average number of races won by favorites (WBF):
| Dates & Races | % WBF | Average Odds | Bets | Winnings |
| 6/21: 9 | .67 | 1.50 | $18 | $30 |
| 6/22: 9 | .33 | 1.67 | $18 | $16.02 |
| 6/23: 9 | .44 | 1.33 | $18 | $18.64 |
| 6/26: 11 | .55 | 1.37 | $22 | $28.44 |
| Total: 38 | .50 | 1.45 | $76 | $93.10 (+23%) |
For comparison, Belmont during the same period:
| Dates & Races | % WBF | Average Odds | Bets | Winnings |
| 6/23: 9 | .44 | 1.64 | $18 | $15.84 |
| 6/24: 9 | .22 | 1.38 | $18 | $9.50 |
| 6/25: 9 | .22 | 1.28 | $18 | $9.10 |
| 6/26: 10 | .30 | 1.02 | $20 | $12.10 |
| Total: 37 | .30 | 1.35 | $74 | $46.54 (-37%) |
This is a small sample size. Too small, really, to draw any significant conclusions from, but the results suggest a bettor might have to work a bit harder to find wagers with value at a small track such as Suffolk.
