Explaining Giacomo
Gary West explains Giacomo’s Derby upset this way: “The combination of a dull rail, an uncommonly fast track and a Derby field laden with speed produced a 50-1 winner.” The first six furlongs were run in 1:09.59; the final time was 2:02.75. (Star Telegram)
The Kentucky Derby Beyer numbers are out, and, “Giacomo was barely the best of a barely adequate group. His winning Beyer speed figure was 100. Beyer figures are available on the Derby beginning with 1992. Until Saturday, the lowest number run by a winner was 105 by Sea Hero in 1993.” (Courier-Journal)
The emerging consensus seems to be that you can forget about Giacomo winning the Triple Crown. He might not even win the Preakness:
Considering Giacomo’s come-from-behind style, it’s tempting to think that his next race will be the more difficult test. Pimlico, with its tight turns and speed-favoring surface, is known for rewarding horses with early foot, definitely not Giacomo’s forte. Its homestretch, while longer than average, is still 25 yards shorter than Churchill’s and there was less than that left in the Derby when Giacomo finally caught the leader.
In other words, he’ll need to be significantly closer to the pace when he and jockey Mike Smith turn for home to get the job done. Smith and trainer John Shirreffs are, obviously, aware of this. Whether Giacomo will go along with this plan remains to be seen. (Fox)
Vic Zast has the opposite take:
The toughest part is over for Giacomo. Things begin to get easier for him now. Despite his 50-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby, the 19 horses that Giacomo trounced in the Run for the Roses will boil down to a manageable few in the upcoming Preakness Stakes, to be held at Pimlico Race Course on May 21. Once past that, he has only to survive the rigors of exhaustion to become the 12th Triple Crown champion. (MSNBC)
Wouldn’t that be something? One of the first things I said after watching the Derby (right after shouting something that would have been acceptable at Suffolk — in fact, whoever I would have been standing by would probably have been shouting something much, much worse — but was out of place in a hipster living room filled with once-a-year horse fans) was, “There will be no Triple Crown this year.” I’d like to be wrong.
Posted by JC in Racing on 05/09/2005 @ 8:55 am / Tagged Kentucky Derby / Follow @railbird on Twitter
