First Impressions
The numbers bode well: 117 pre-entries, 22 European invaders, four returning winners. A week before, the Breeders’ Cup is shaping up as a day of full fields and tough races.
The new line-up takes both juvenile races out of the Pick 6, which must be disappointing to those who’d hoped to single First Samurai in the Juvenile. The impressive Champagne winner is one of the day’s logical favorites. You get the idea that if jockey Jerry Bailey bet, he’d put it all on his Juvenile mount:
First Samurai may be the only logical favorite that doesn’t seem totally vulnerable. He’s beaten rival Henny Hughes twice by a comfortable margin. Admittedly, Henny Hughes contested a blistering pace in the Champagne and still had enough to finish second — but it wasn’t close there and it wasn’t in the Hopeful either. The Juvenile may be the one race where the one-two favorites finish one-two, which doesn’t spoil the fun of considering upset possibilities:
Ivan Denisovich, one of the European contingent, will be making his first start on the dirt. I confess to thinking of betting him in a longshot Russian literature exacta with Leo. That would be a payoff! But bad handicapping.
Like the Juvenile, the Juvenile Fillies is also setting up as a rematch, with Adieu and Folklore meeting once more. It seems less likely that this race will end with both hitting the board — there are just too many other improving and talented fillies entered, such as Original Spin and Wild Fit. Another is the overlooked Along the Sea, who ran a challenging second to Adieu in the Frizette and managed a third in the Matron despite bursting through the gate and running a few yards down the backstretch before the start.
