This Weekend’s Preps
The Kentucky Derby prep season largely comes to an end this Saturday with the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. Sure, there’s the Lexington on April 22, which might yield a Derby starter or two, and it’s possible some brave (or desperate) trainer will use the Derby Trial as a tightening for the Derby as Ron Ellis did last year with Don’t Get Mad, who ended up finishing fourth in the run for the roses after winning the Trial the week before. It’s not likely, though, that the Derby winner will run in either of those races. And it’s not likely that the Derby winner ran in last weekend’s races either, writes Gary West, who expects that this year’s winner is running tomorrow:
Just don’t look to the winner of either race to follow up with a victory at Churchill. A Blue Grass Stakes winner hasn’t won the Derby since 1991, and Smarty Jones — undefeated through the Belmont — is the only Arkansas Derby winner in recent years to also win the Derby.
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I get the impression that many of the connections surrounding Blue Grass Stakes starters will be feeling a lot of pressure tomorrow. Trainer Nick Zito is scrambling for a Derby horse with only three weeks to go, and he’s looking to Little Cliff as one of his last chances for this year. “I need him. I need everything he’s got … I’m still trying to get in. He’s got a good shot, one of my last shots.” The much-hyped Strong Contender will be making his first stakes start (and only his third career start) and needs to finish first or second to get the graded earnings to enter the Derby. And Trainer Frank Brothers needs First Samurai to show some improvement off his first two-turn race last month to move ahead. “Talking doesn’t really cut it. He has to do it.”
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In the Arkansas Derby, the focus is all on Lawyer Ron. Should he win on Saturday, he’ll sweep Oaklawn’s Derby prep series and go into the Kentucky Derby as one of the two or three top prospects, “a lifelong dream” for trainer Bob Holthus. Lawyer Ron will face 12 others, including Private Vow, stablemate Red Raymond, and Rushaway winner High Cotton. Well Said has been scratched with some filling in his ankle. Breaking from post four, which Holthus called “excellent” after Wednesday’s draw, Lawyer Ron should be well-positioned to do whatever he wants. Holthus, though, hopes he’ll “lay third or fourth, three or four lengths off the lead.”
