Beyers, Pre and Post BC
Intrigued by Steven Crist’s post comparing the Beyer figures Breeders’ Cup runners earned over the rain-soaked Monmouth surfaces on Saturday to their previous efforts, which included a chart showing that only 20 of 77 (26%) equaled or surpassed their last figure, I took a look at the 2006 and 2005 Breeders’ Cup numbers, and found that the 2007 percentage of non-progression, while it seems low and potentially indicative of horses not handling the slop or soft grass, might not be that far off. In 2006 (applying the same criteria as Crist), 22 of 86 (25.6%) runners matched or bettered their Beyers; in 2005, 26 of 81 (32%) did so:
What I find interesting about the numbers, and maybe more suggestive of horses not running their races, is the pattern of Beyers in each race and the difference between the two previous years, which were run over dry tracks, and 2007. There’s a flattening in the 2007 figures, with fewer big Beyer changes and no horse finishing worse than fifth showing any improvement. This year’s Classic is the race that appears most odd in comparison: Both 2006 and 2005 look formful, Beyer-wise, for all runners; 2007, not as much.
11/2 Addendum: A note from reader Richard raises a good point: “I think something unmentioned is the idea that most horses’ Beyer numbers are likely to go down when the competition toughens up. The BC participants’ prep races are versus softer competition and therefore they can perform better and earn a higher Beyer number. But as the numbers from the past three years show, stiffer competition separates the men from the boys, so the boys’ numbers regress while the men’s numbers get better.” Absolutely. There’s a relationship between class and speed that wasn’t addressed in this short post; it is very likely that the depth of Breeders’ Cup races results in regression for a number of starters, explaining why only a minority can match or better a previous performance, as measured by the figures. “Class will trump speed figures,” Richard writes, and while that’s not always so, it’s a heedful warning that relying too much on Beyers, or any one factor, will lead the handicapper astray, especially when talking about this level of racing …
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