JC / Railbird

I was sorry Tomcito did not get the money he needed in the Lexington. A good handicapping friend of mine believes synthetic tracks, particularly Keeneland, are not kind to large horses. He believes they sink in while smaller horses glide over. Tomcito would need both fillies and two or three others to drop out of the field to get in, but I definitely believes he ranks above many higher and, despite the odds, will remain in the top 15 (at the bottom) of my Thoroughbred Times poll list. — John S.

Posted by John S. on April 20, 2008 @ 1:49 pm

I totally agree with John about Tomcito. Real talent there, and I hope we see it in the Belmont at least.
Also, strike Massive Drama off your earnings list; his connections are reporting over on the DRF FormBlog that he is definitely not running in the Derby.

Posted by Valerie on April 20, 2008 @ 3:54 pm

If Proud Spell (rightly, I believe) goes instead in the Oaks, and Salute the Sarge (likely), Cowboy Cal (should), Anak Nakal (should), Bob Black Jack, and Majestic Warrior (likely) drop out of the Derby, then Tomcito would get in. Should his connections run him? I say “YES!”

Posted by Valerie on April 20, 2008 @ 6:56 pm

Well, Valerie, we were flying in such fine union there for a moment until you wrote that Cowboy Cal should drop out of the Derby. All I can say is you have been warned. — John S.

Posted by John S. on April 20, 2008 @ 9:47 pm

Thanks for the updates, Valerie. List adjusted. Tomcito is so close — I’m hoping for enough defections to get him into the field, because I think he’ll relish the long stretch at Churchill.
Intriguing theory your handicapping friend has about synthetics, John. I’ve never thought about that, but it makes sense — I also wonder if the same thing happens on sloppy tracks. Do lighter horses skim over puddles better than larger horses?

Posted by Jessica on April 21, 2008 @ 9:11 am

I know I should know this, but is Majestic Warrior seriously still under consideration for the Derby?
Brutal.

Posted by EJXD2 on April 21, 2008 @ 10:09 am

It doesn’t seem possible after his two dud starts this year, but he has been working steadily all spring and I haven’t come across anything to the contrary …
Oh, here’s something: DRF reports that Majestic Warrior will start next in the Derby Trial, so he’s probably not going to the Derby.

Posted by Jessica on April 21, 2008 @ 11:36 am

Majestic Warrior was not under any recent consideration. Bill Mott has run exactly four horses in the Kentucky Derby in his long, distinguished career. The best — Favorite Trick — finished eighth, and that was really a Pat Byrne production anyway. The next best, I believe, placed 11th. The Derby is not exactly a Mott priority. Take note, Court Vision fans. IEAH is the owner. Also, IEAH announced Prado replaces Leparoux on Pure Clan in the Oaks. From the press release: “The owners have had good luck with him,” said Holthus. “It was their decision.”
As for the big horse thing, Jessica, I think it has more to do with hoof in mud than size — hell, I don’t know — but because you asked, I’m going to share one of my handicapping arsenal secrets with you and your readers (who probably already know): Go to the bank in the slop with any Carson City and Unbridled Song! — John S.

Posted by John S. on April 21, 2008 @ 7:33 pm