Derby Day Notes
– The early Beyer speed figure assigned to Proud Spell’s Oaks victory is 99, which means the filly basically returned to the form she displayed at the Fair Grounds earlier this year, none the worse for her third-place finish in the Ashland. I’m sure Pyro supporters will take heart from this — I’m willing to bet I’ll have such a conversation with Dana at Belmont this afternoon — but I’d caution that even if Pyro returns to his pre-Blue Grass level in the Derby, that still puts him about 10 lengths behind the winner.
– Track superintendent Butch Lehr kept the Churchill track closed this morning to prevent water getting into the surface, which was sealed tight last night. As Jerry Bailey observed yesterday, trainer Larry Jones wasn’t sinking into the track as he walked out to meet Proud Spell after the Oaks. “This track is hard, it’s fast, it’s sealed,” said Bailey. “Keep that in mind for tomorrow.” Hey, the man was right about Saez’s goggles, so I think I’ll trust his unconventional measure of track condition as well. The forecast calls for light showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.
– Steven Crist has posted the Oaks-Derby double will-pays and calculated the equivalent win odds for this afternoon’s race. Interesting: Court Vision comes in at 12-1, well off his morning line of 20-1, Gayego ends up at 22-1, which is pretty close to his advance wagering odds of 21-1.
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