JC / Railbird

Nicanor’s Odds?

I know it’s nearly sacrilegious to discuss anything but the Belmont Stakes this week, but a hot debate has erupted in my office concerning what Nicanor’s odds will be when he debuts.
For those who don’t know, Nicanor is the late Barbaro’s full brother. He’s a two-year-old currently in training with Michael Matz at Fair Hill. The Blood Horse’s Claire Novak has been maintaining a blog dedicated to the colt’s development.
In discussing Novak’s most recent entry, I said to a coworker that I am enjoying the hype because it will lead to Nicanor being the “bet-against of the millennium” when he finally debuts. My coworker disagreed saying that the public does not necessarily hammer pedigree plays first-time out.
To me, though, this is not a pedigree play so much as a hype play. The Green Monkey is the primary example of this. He was 1-to-2 in his debut despite the fact that it took 1 1/2 years for him to start following his record sale. His workouts were excruciatingly slow, and the backstretch whispers indicated that he couldn’t beat any of trainer Todd Pletcher’s most inferior workmates.
Still, the $16-million horse was finally in a race, and he was 1-to-2 when finishing third by seven lengths. He started twice more and was favored both times.
This is not meant as a commentary on what level of success Nicanor can achieve. Good horses run to or even out run their odds many times. For every Big Brown, who paid $29.40 when he won his debut, there is a Casino Drive, who was 1-to-5 when he won his debut.
I say Nicanor couldn’t possibly be higher than even money when he runs, and if he debuts at Laurel or Delaware then 1-to-2 is probably the ceiling. My coworker says that no one could possibly make the projection without seeing how he’s been training, who else is in the race, etc.
What say you?


8 Comments

the green monkey’s debut was on the same day rags to riches ran at belmont. it was high profile, on a saturday during which a lot of ‘weekend warrior’ money was being put through the windows.
can’t evision that level of profile for a msw at delaware. barbaro’s appeal stretches beyond the those who wager even casually. i can’t see those people THAT excited to wager on nicanor.
a full field of 10 non-winners at delaware (not the usual 5 or 6 horse heat) and i’ll put my money on the over even money.

Posted by o_crunk on June 4, 2008 @ 11:56 am

If the debut came at Delaware, it’d probably be against five other maidens. If it came at Laurel on the grass, then it could be a full field of 14.
Good point about The Green Monkey’s debut coming on the undercard of a Grade 1 race featuring one of racing’s superstars.

Posted by EJXD2 on June 4, 2008 @ 12:04 pm

If that is true and I don’t deny it…how do you explain the success of the pet rock?
I learned a while ago never to underestimate the mindlessness of the masses.

Posted by winston on June 4, 2008 @ 1:40 pm

I’ve discussed this at home too…I suspect that he’ll draw an emotional crowd (especially if he debuts at Delaware Park – here’s hoping it’s not on the Del Cap undercard!) that bets him down to silly odds. I also hope he’s a damn good racehorse, but I’m not about to put money on it at this point.

Posted by Superfecta on June 4, 2008 @ 2:19 pm

That is why it is pari mutuel betting. You are betting against other people, not the house. If they screw up and you know it, you win. Try doing that against a slot machine. That is why you can actually make money in horse handicapping.

Posted by robert on June 4, 2008 @ 3:24 pm

This is a no-brainer. Matz never wins first out. Bettors know that, right?

Posted by John S. on June 4, 2008 @ 5:47 pm

Barbaro won first-time out.

Posted by EJXD2 on June 4, 2008 @ 7:57 pm

Someone was able to come up with some stats on Barbaro at 3 years. One of his workouts was 4 furlongs in 48 flat.
Nicanor’s first timed workout was 3 furlongs in 39 flat.
Sounds like young Nicanor (at 2) was only 1 second per furlong off his big brother’s time.
Sounds promising to me.

Posted by APRILM on June 10, 2008 @ 6:09 pm