JC / Railbird

Baughs of Hollywood

The card today (July 5) at Hollywood is among the best I’ve seen this year, and the $1.2-million carryover certainly adds some excitement. Here are some thoughts:
Race 3, $100,000 HolJuvCh-G3
Should a Lightnin N Thunder two-year-old ever cost $400,000? I guess we won’t find out today since Nochangenweather scratched, but that is a hefty price for a colt by a $4,000 stallion.
This seems like a race where you either love the morning line favorite, #4 Azul Leon, or you have go really deep.
Race 5, $300,000 VanityH-G1
I can’t remember the last time I thought a horse was as unbeatable in a spot as Zenyatta looks in this race. Still, I think there could be some value in beating Tough Tiz’s Sis underneath.
How great was last year’s Kentucky Oaks? Rags to Riches won with Octave, TTS, Sealy Hill, and Dreaming of Anna all in the mix as well. Wow!

Race 7, $750,000 CshCllMl-G2
I love the way Lady of Venice is coming into this race and the way Kiaran has talked about this mare in preparing to ship west. Ventura will be a quarter the price she was last out and is an underlay.
Race 8, $66,000 AlwN1X
#11 Tizsweetdreams will take too much money here and is a nice horse to beat while starting a pick four. I’ll use #s 3, 5, 10.
Race 9, $750,000 AmrcnOks-G1
Another vulnerable favorite (morning line, at least) in #1 Pure Clan, who despite the undefeated record on turf, just doesn’t strike me as a Grade 1 horse going 1 1/4 miles on the weeds.
I’m looking Eurovision here with #9 Carribean Sunset and #3 Satan’s Circus, both of which are win bets at their morning line prices. These are just legitimate Grade 1 horses whereas the American entrants have not proved themselves at that level yet.
Race 10, $300,000 TrplBndH-G1
Street Boss is boss. There’s speed in the race, and he will be rolling late.
Race 11, $65,000 Md Sp Wt
If #9 Surprises Welcome moves up on turf, then she’s an easy winner here. If she doesn’t, then #1s Alley Theater or #5 Cheryl’s Surprise look to offer the most value.
I was at Santa Anita Park on Sunday in which there was a double carryover, and the atmosphere was electric. I can’t imagine what Hollywood Park will be like going into that sixth race today.
It’s easy to pick apart what’s wrong with horse racing, but this Hollywood card shows you what’s right: Full fields, a chance for a big score, Grade 1 racing … enjoy!


1 Comment

I was looking for Satan’s Circus to win the Oaks, but can’t begrudge Pure Clan a very fine finish. And the exacta at $45 wasn’t bad …

Posted by Jessica on July 5, 2008 @ 10:13 pm