JC / Railbird

Briefly

– Discuss: Jockey Garrett Gomez chose to ride multiple graded stakes-winning Pioneerof the Nile in the Kentucky Derby over stakes-placed Dunkirk. Did he make the right call? “No,” says Bill Finley, Dunkirk is the better horse. “Yes,” says Jon White, PotN might sweep the Triple Crown. Now, this is the sort of debate it’s fun to have Derby season …

– Steve Davidowitz makes a point in his latest Trackmaster column worth repeating: “Isn’t it clear by now that horses that have run well — or reasonably well — on the synthetic surfaces in southern California have run just as well if not better on good ole plain dirt?” I can think of a few reasons a handicapper might decide to dismiss the Derby contenders, even Pioneerof the Nile, who have campaigned primarily over synthetics, but the surface isn’t a sound one, at least, not yet. There’s too little data, and what there is, points to the synth-to-dirt move as not being an automatic negative.

– Love this little detail in a Los Angeles Times article about Rafael Bejarano’s SoCal success: “Bejarano is so in demand that Saturday, on the 10-race California Gold Rush program, he will have a mount in all 10 races.” The Saturday following, Bejarano will be at Churchill to ride Papa Clem, whose Derby credentials seem more solid the more I consider him.

– Unlike Desert Party … Godolphin announced today that Alan Garcia will remain on Regal Ransom and that Ramon Dominguez will ride Desert Party for the first time next week, which doesn’t inspire confidence in this fan. (Not because Dominguez isn’t a fine jockey, but why no Frankie Dettori? There’s also the matter of Desert Party’s first work at Churchill, which was solid, but not so good as his stablemate’s on the same day.)

– Forget about looking for Kentucky Derby picks who have proved they can come home in less than :38 seconds in a nine-furlong prep. According to the Downey Profile, every likely contender who finished first or second in a prep race ran the final three furlongs in that time or better. What’s more, two-thirds of likely starters did so in better than :37 seconds. This really will be a competitive Derby. (Via The Rail, recently returned.)


5 Comments

My concern with PoTN & surface is the first time aspect… Crist brings up an apt example in Curlin, who was reportedly working well at Santa Anita but didn’t handle it in the actual race. IWR did well first out on dirt but Papa Clem needed a race. No doubt there were other factors at work in each instance too.

I don’t doubt that PoTN can do well on dirt, I’m just not convinced it’s gonna be first out. All the historical data points in the world (if they existed) couldn’t convince me otherwise, at least not against this field. Perhaps I would think differently against a weaker field in a dead-on perfect pace scenario for him.

Bejarano is one more reason to take a long look at Papa Clem, IMO.

Posted by dana on April 23, 2009 @ 3:38 pm

I thought Dettori’s ride in the UAE Derby looked a bit lazy. He sure took a long time to start urging Desert Party out of the slumber. Perhaps Ramon will prove to be more agressive.

Posted by Keith - Triple Dead Heat on April 23, 2009 @ 3:53 pm

Dettori rides in the Guineas the same day and will most likely have several good rides over the weekend, hence more than enough reason not to cross the Atlantic.

I am worried about Dominguez as DP’s jock, though. He can be excellent, but there’s no other jockey who so often maneuvers a clearly superior horse into a hopeless situation behind a wall of horses. I really prefer seeing him on longshots, where his risky style can be a blessing.

Does anybody know if Garcia could ultimately decide for himself, or was it really Sheikh Mo who picked his ride?

Posted by Malcer on April 23, 2009 @ 4:11 pm

I don’t think synth-to-dirt is an automatic negative but I do believe there is enough data now out there to say that synth route races are closer to turf races than they are to dirt races.

Almost every school of handicapping seems to agree on that point. Beyer, pace, trip…whatever.

In the case of Pioneer of the Nile, we have a horse that has won HUGE key races on the trail and a huge tool in a handicapper’s toolbox is the key race.

Unfortunately the horses who he beat are just not turf horses. They happened to excel (or jump forward) at running every step of the way – which is what it takes to win on dirt.

However…2 out the last 3 derby winners were perhaps better on turf than they were on dirt. Neither of them ran on synth.

We can talk about not having enough data until the cows come home. Even if you had enough data, outliers to that data defeat you from time to time. Still, I’m willing to take a stand against PotN.

Posted by o_crunk on April 23, 2009 @ 6:27 pm

Steve Davidowitz is a great writer and a master handicapper. His classic text Betting Thoroughbreds has stood the test of time and is worth revisiting every 6 months.

And of course he’s a Jersey guy.
What’s not to like ? ;-)

Posted by The_Knight_Sky on April 24, 2009 @ 11:39 am