JC / Railbird

In Our Dreams

Dick Jerardi:

Failing that, how about Black Caviar down the hill and Frankel in the Mile at the Breeders’ Cup? I get that isn’t going to happen, but …

It would never happen — there’s no scenario in which it makes sense — but I would really enjoy watching Frankel on the downhill turf at Santa Anita.

Posted by JC in Racing on 06/21/2012 @ 8:21 am / Tagged Black Caviar, Breeders' Cup, Frankel, International, Santa Anita / Follow @railbird on Twitter

Picks, Plays, and Thanks

Belmont Stakes day picks, up on Hello Race Fans.

Kevin Martin, of Colin’s Ghost, asked five handicappers how they would bet the Belmont Stakes with $100. Valerie Grash offers some pedigree plays that hold up even with I’ll Have Another’s sudden retirement.

As for that, like everyone else on hearing the news, I was disappointed. What a letdown! But, like everyone else, I can’t see that trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Paul Reddam did anything but their best by the horse, scratching him when he came up with a sore tendon after galloping on Friday.

Team IHA also did right by the bettors — imagine the outcry there would have been if I’ll Had Another had finished other than as the winner and it emerged — as it would have — that he had had some heat and swelling in his left front leg and so wasn’t 100 percent. Oh, we would have howled! How could they let us bet him? How could they have run him?

By putting the horse first, they protected the horseplayer.

Posted by JC in Triple Crown on 06/09/2012 @ 12:46 pm / Tagged Belmont Stakes, Belmont Stakes Plays, I'll Have Another, Picks, Wagering / Follow @railbird on Twitter

Belmont Bombs

Andrew Beyer mentions something that’s been on my mind as I start thinking about how to play this year’s Belmont Stakes:

Forget about handicapping; if you bet every starter in every Belmont Stakes for the last 15 years you’d have almost doubled your money.

Last year, I looked at the win payouts for each of the Triple Crown races and the five Grade 1 Kentucky Derby preps over a decade, and the Belmont was the race that offered the greatest opportunity:

Only one favorite has won the Belmont Stakes in the past 10 years, and that was Afleet Alex in 2005. Handicappers look for longshots in the Derby, but the Belmont has delivered a higher average price ($43.61) and a healthy ROI in recent years — if you had bet $2 to win on all 110 Belmont starters since 2002, you would have almost doubled your money.

There’s a lot to like about I’ll Have Another on Saturday, but the Belmont is the classic race to look for an upset with a rewarding payoff.

Posted by JC in Triple Crown on 06/04/2012 @ 1:32 pm / Tagged Belmont Stakes, Favorites, Handicapping, Longshots, Payouts, Wagering / Follow @railbird on Twitter