With Uncle Mo back in training (the early Derby favorite breezed three furlongs in 39:95 at Palm Meadows this morning) and the Holy Bull Stakes (last Derby winner, Barbaro ’06) kicking off Gulfstream’s Derby prep series this afternoon, it seemed a good time to look back at the stakes in which the top three Kentucky Derby finishers of the last 10 years prepped (wins are bolded in the spreadsheet below). Considering how much prep schedules and training regimens have changed in just the past decade, it’s practically quaint that there was a time a Derby prospect could start in both the Wood Memorial and the Florida Derby, as did 2003 runner-up Empire Maker and 2001 winner Monarchos. And the Tampa Bay Derby, run in March, has become such a key prep, it’s surprising that its rise only dates back to Bluegrass Cat in 2006.
It was Street Sense, though, who in 2007 elevated the Tampa Bay Derby into a race that trainer Todd Pletcher is now seriously considering for Uncle Mo’s first start of the year. Street Sense won at Tampa, then lost the Blue Grass, and is one of six Kentucky Derby winners of the past 10 years who didn’t win his final prep. Of the four who did, three were undefeated going into the Derby, including Smarty Jones, who in 2004 was the first undefeated winner of the Kentucky Derby since Seattle Slew in 1977. Barbaro accomplished the same feat in 2006, then Big Brown did in 2008. Since 2001, there have been five unbeaten horses among 188 Derby starters — the three Derby winners already mentioned, plus Curlin in 2007 (he finished third), and Showing Up in 2006 (sixth). Make of this what you will: As Derby prospects make fewer starts, and their spots are more carefully chosen, there’s a greater chance an undefeated horse (or horses) will enter the Derby. And yet, a record of three wins and four in-the-money finishes from five such starters isn’t to be dismissed.
Related: Historical criteria and Derby winners’ prep schedules, 1998-2010.
Posted by JC in Racing on 01/30/2011 @ 2:33 pm / Tagged Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Stakes Races, Trends / Follow @railbird on Twitter
Santa Anita and Del Mar executives recently met with horseplayers to discuss the January 1 takeout increase and other concerns. Art Wilson reports:
A HANA-backed boycott of California races is believed to be a factor in Santa Anita’s declining handle numbers this meet. HANA president Jeff Platt and the group’s California representative, Roger Way, met with Santa Anita president George Haines and Allen Gutterman, the track’s marketing director, on Sunday at Santa Anita and with Del Mar president Craig Fravel and marketing director Craig Dado on Monday … Aaron Vercruysse, hired recently by the Thoroughbred Owners of California to advise the group on betting matters, attended Sunday’s meeting …
The meetings are evidence that horseplayers, as represented by HANA, have gained the clout to compel conversation about customer issues. And while conversation isn’t action of the sort that’s going to end the players’ boycott, it is a start, one that went over well with Andy Asaro, a California horseplayer who attended both meetings. I talked with Asaro last night and he was positive about the discussions, describing the Santa Anita and Del Mar executives as “very interested” in the bettors’ perspective and open to making adjustments. He was less appreciative of the TOC, represented by Vercruysse. Although Asaro found Vercruysse pleasant and knowledgeable, he felt his presence was perfunctory. “He was there for the TOC to be able to say they talked to us,” said Asaro, suggesting that wasn’t enough. “They need to show goodwill.”
1/31/11 Addendum: HANA president Jeff Platt answers questions about the meetings. Noted: “However, I think there might be at least partial support at this point within track management to rescind the takeout increase. I say that because they reached out to us. They are looking for solutions.”
Posted by JC in Industry on 01/29/2011 @ 10:55 am / Tagged Boycott, California, CHRB, Del Mar, HANA, Handle, Horseplayers, Santa Anita, Takeout, TOC / Follow @railbird on Twitter
It’s that time of year again, when handicappers toss aside the disappointments of last spring and savor the pleasure of a fresh start on the Derby trail, when the horse who could win the Triple Crown is all unblemished potential. Lists appear like croci — every 3-year-old could be the one.
I’ll be adding to the list-mania, beginning next week, when the Paulick Derby Index returns for its third season, and one question preoccupies me as I consider who’s a top 10 Kentucky Derby contender — what to do with California sophomores such as Tapizar, wire-to-wire winner of the Sham Stakes? The hard new surface lauded as being similar to Churchill Downs’ deep dirt in the first days of training last December is turning out dazzling times that are anything but Churchill-like. Sand added to the track last week slowed things down a little, but front-runners retained their edge, and on Thursday, a $10,000 claimer named Self Insured ran a mile in 1:34. That’s quick.
It all makes me a bit nostalgic for the synthetic surface. The new surface is so kind to speed, it makes me doubtful it’s doing much for stamina.
Related: The new surface also continues to be kind to trainer Bob Baffert.
Posted by JC in Racing on 01/28/2011 @ 12:03 pm / Tagged Bob Baffert, Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Lists, Santa Anita, Speedballs, Track Surfaces / Follow @railbird on Twitter
